Iran Primer's Blog

Report: Nuke Program Expensive and Risky

April 3, 2013 | 9:34am

Iran’s nuclear program has cost more than $100 billion in lost foreign investment and oil revenue, according to a new report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Federation of American Scientists. It argues that the nuclear program may be too entangled with national pride and significant sunk costs for Iran to abandon it. For example, the Bushehr nuclear reactor alone took nearly four decades to build and cost $11 billion.

Iran's nuclear power program is also inefficient and potentially unsafe, according to the report. The Bushehr reactor only supplies 2 percent of Iran’s electricity needs. Up to 15 percent of electricity is lost through “old and ill-maintained transmission lines.” The Bushehr plant may be vulnerable to earthquakes because it sits at the intersection of three tectonic plates.

The report concludes with policy implications for the United States and its allies. It argues that a broader political settlement could assure that Iran’s nuclear program remains peaceful. The report suggests offering Iran alternative energy technologies, such as solar energy. It urges Washington to engage in public diplomacy and tell Iranians how they would benefit from a deal. The following are excerpts from the report, with a link to the full text at the end.

Nuclear Power: Energy Security or Insecurity

Successive Iranian governments present their quest for nuclear energy as indispensable

to the country’s preparations for life after oil. This aspiration, however, turned into the

nemesis of Iran’s energy sector when it invited draconian international sanctions. These

measures have left Iran’s oil and gas industry in shambles and Iran’s other natural energy

resources overlooked. It is evident that Tehran’s rationale for investing in nuclear

energy, especially in uranium enrichment, is consistent neither with the realities of its

resource endowments nor with the near-term needs of its energy sector…

A Comparative Disadvantage

The Bushehr reactor—the first nuclear reactor of its kind in the Middle East—and Iran’s

extensive nuclear fuel-cycle infrastructure are often portrayed by the Iranian government

as symbols of the country’s scientific adroitness, especially in comparison with other

regional states. But Iran does not have that much of a technological edge. Neighboring

countries, in contrast to Iran, have unimpeded access to global markets and are likely to

bridge the technology gap rapidly. The same world powers that have imposed sanctions

on Iran are supporting these nuclear-hopefuls that have opted to make their programs

optimally transparent…

Unheeded Warnings

... Iran’s Bushehr plant is a hybrid German-Russian reactor that resembles a virtual petridish of amalgamated equipment and antiquated technology. The sui generis nature of the reactor means that Iran cannot benefit from other countries’ safety experiences. Problems rooted in this situation emerged even before the reactor became operational. During tests conducted in February 2011, all four of the reactor’s emergency cooling pumps were damaged, sending tiny metal shavings into the cooling water.171 These pumps were German and from the 1970s. Russian engineers pressured Iran to unload the 163 fuel assemblies of low-enriched uranium from the core of the reactor in order to prevent any damage to them and conduct a thorough cleaning, which further delayed the longoverdue launch. Again in October 2012, the reactor was shut down and fuel rods were unloaded after stray bolts were found beneath the fuel cells.

More ominously, Bushehr is located at the intersection of three tectonic plates. According to the Russian builder of the reactor, the model that was used as basis for the Bushehr reactor is designed to endure an earthquake of intensity 7 on MSK-64 scale when it is in operation (corresponding to 6 on the Richter scale) and an earthquake of intensity 8 on MSK-64 scale under safe shutdown (corresponding to 6.7 on the Richter scale)…

The Road Ahead

Iran’s nuclear program has deep roots. It cannot be “ended” or “bombed away.” It is entangled with too much pride—however misguided—and sunk costs. Given the country’s indigenous knowledge and expertise, the only long-term solution for assuring that Iran’s nuclear program remains purely peaceful is to find a mutually agreeable diplomatic solution.

The contours of such a deal are becoming increasingly clear. Any agreement would have

to include commitments by Iran not to undertake specific experiments, imports, and

other activities that would be vital to making nuclear weapons and therefore illegitimate

for a peaceful nuclear program. The IAEA has already identified some of the benchmarks

of nuclear weaponization and others could be specified. Tehran will be asked to operationalize

its supreme leader’s repeated religious declarations that Iran would not seek

nuclear weapons.

The establishment of detailed and mutually agreed boundaries between Iran’s nuclear

program and a nuclear weapons program could then give tolerable confidence that Iran

could continue to enrich uranium to power-reactor levels (below 5 percent). In addition

to saving face domestically, continued enrichment would give Iranian leaders leverage to

keep the United States from reneging on its commitments. Iran would have the option

of ratcheting up the level of enrichment in a tit-for-tat response to failures by the United

States or others to keep their side of any deal. Such a deal would also require the United

States and European Union to ease the most punishing sanctions, namely those against

Iran’s central bank and oil sales…

Regardless of economic hardships, the Iranian people are unlikely to comprehend the

U.S. strategy unless Washington provides answers to key questions: What could Iranians

collectively gain by a nuclear compromise, other than a reduction of sanctions and

the threat of war? How could a more conciliatory Iranian approach improve the country’s

economy and advance its technological—including nuclear—prowess? U.S. public diplomacy efforts should make clear to Iranians that a prosperous, integrated Iran—as opposed to a weakened and isolated Iran—is in America’s interests…

Click here for the full text.

Tags: Diplomacy, Energy, Iran, Nuclear, Reports, Safety, Sanctions, United States

Khamenei Comments II: Islam’s Rules on Sports

April 2, 2013 | 1:35pm

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told athletes that they play a valuable role in promoting Iran’s values abroad and raising “national self-confidence” at home. Athletes act as ambassadors at international competitions, presenting Iran as a “determined, religious, talented and noble nation, which is committed to Sharia (Islamic law),” Khamenei said at a March 11 meeting with veteran athletes and participants from the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics. The supreme leader argued that Iranian women who wear hijab while competing promote piety and modesty abroad. Refusal to compete with Israeli athletes is a “truly crucial and important diplomatic effort to confront the Zionist regime,” he said. The following are excerpted remarks from Khamenei’s speech.

Women in Sports

“An athlete promotes the values of a nation with good sportsmanship and piety. The fact that our woman athletes enter sports arenas with hijab (head covering) is very important…”

“In a certain European country, some people dare to kill a woman because she is wearing hijab. And they do it in a court of law and in front of the judge. This is the case. They are not ashamed of it. Under a certain illegitimate law, they harass women who wear hijab in universities, stadiums, parks and on the streets. In such conditions, a woman who wears hijab stands on the medal platform in such countries and makes everyone respect her. Is this a minor achievement? This is a very great achievement. Everybody should appreciate from the bottom of their heart the value of woman athletes who participate in international arenas with hijab and modesty….”

Faith and Athletics

“When our athletes achieve a victory in such arenas and when they are ranked first, they chant the slogan of "Ya Hossein", prostrate themselves and hold up their hands and thank God. Do you know how excited the Islamic Ummah and Muslim nations become when you do this? In sports arenas, our outstanding youth - not ordinary youth - give such prominence to spirituality in a world in which there is an effort to make young individuals decadent and turn their backs on spirituality…”

U.S.-Iran Rivalry

“Imagine that in an international sports competition - such as the recent one - you participate with 54 athletes and you win 12 medals. Imagine that America participates with 530 athletes and it wins 110 medals. If America wants to win as many medals as you do, it should win 120 medals. It participates with 10 times more athletes than you do. Therefore, it should win 10 times more medals than you do. It should win 120 medals. But it has not won 120 medals…”

Sports Solve Social Problems

“If people turn to sports activities, many social and behavioral problems - such as addiction, family rows, financial and psychological problems and other such problems - will be solved. Many of our problems will be solved if sports activities become truly common among all the people in our country… That is to say, you can strengthen morality and promote Iranian traditions….”

Refusal to Compete with “Zionists”

“The fact that our youth refused to compete with Zionist athletes in sports arenas is very valuable. That is why arrogant powers became so angry. They reacted strongly when this happened several times. This move, which was made by our youth, is very important. It is truly a crucial and important diplomatic effort to confront the Zionist regime...”

Athletes as Role Models

“[W]hen we look at a champion, we find him to be a manifestation of intelligence, firm determination, physical capabilities and many other qualities. Naturally, a champion has great self-confidence. He does not need to do things that weak people do. He does not need to flatter, lie and cheat. He does not need to be hypocritical…”

“On a social level, a champion raises national self-confidence because he is the manifestation of the capabilities of a nation in a certain arena. That is to say, he raises the self-confidence of all people in a country… Professional sports are the engine for regular exercise. With professional sports, we can do something to make regular exercise common. Regular exercise is one of the necessities of life. It is like eating and breathing. We should pay attention to it. This is another role of sports on a social level…”

“Fortunately, our athletes are morally healthy. But we should strongly stress this issue. There are certain dangers. When there is a lot of media attention on an international level, a young athlete may be in serious danger of becoming immoral. We should hold this danger at bay… Being humble, being loyal and sympathetic to the people and exercising good sportsmanship are very important qualities. It is one thing to achieve these qualities, it is quite another to preserve these qualities...”

Disabled Athletes

“[W]e should appreciate the value of disabled athletes. What they do is really astonishing. When people look at these athletes, they see that not only does their disability not prevent them from living in a normal way, but they are also so determined that they become athletes and stand on the medal platform…”

Polo’s Iranian Roots

“Well, in such and such sports, we do not at all rank high in the world and we have no chance to do so. We are unlikely to rank high in such sports. Of course, there are certain reasons for this. But in certain sports, we are ranked high in the world. Today, you stand on the medal platform in a number of sports such as wrestling, weightlifting or other sports. This is very important. A few years ago - I do not remember which year it was - I had a meeting with my athlete friends. I referred to chowgan [polo] as one of these sports in that meeting. Well, chowgan is a sport which belongs to the people of Iran…You should pay attention to sports which have deep historical roots [in Iran] and in which we are talented, particularly sports for which we have native coaches.”

Need for Foreign Coaches

“One of the brothers in this meeting said that we should benefit from foreign coaches. I have no objections in this regard. You should not think that I am opposed to hiring a good and competent foreign coach. But when you benefit from a native coach for soccer, basketball, volleyball, wrestling or any other sports, I become happy and I feel a sense of pride. It is very good that the coach of our athletes and our youth is one of us and is nurtured here. Of course, some foreign coaches are good and some others are not good and they take a lot of money, they have high expectations and sometimes they do not carry out their duties. There are such coaches. Therefore, this is what I mean when I sometimes speak about foreign coaches…”

Click here for the full text of the speech.

Photo credit: Khamenei.ir via Facebook

Tags: Hejab, Iran, Islam, Israel, Khamenei, Sports, United States, Women

Khamenei Comments I: Nuke Research as Model for Sports

April 2, 2013 | 12:59pm

In a little noticed speech, Iran’s supreme leader urged athletes to emulate the determination of the country’s nuclear scientists. The West thought that “we would not be able to produce fuel plates and fuel rods. But our youth built them,” Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Olympic and Paralympic medalists on March 11. “We have managed to do things which the enemy could not even imagine… you can do this too [in sports].” The following are excerpted remarks from his speech that also covered morality in sports, female athletes, foreign coaches and competitions with Israelis.

“…You should adopt a scientific approach towards sports - the ones which have research-based guidelines. You should improve research. As other scientific research, the research that is carried out in the world on a specific sport is not the last word. It is possible to carry out research on the basis of such research or add new things to it in order to improve or even reject it. Well, you should do such things in Iran. We have managed to make so much progress in complex scientific areas with the help of our youth. We have managed to do things which the enemy could not even imagine. It could not imagine that an Iranian individual can do such things. Therefore, you can do this too.

The Tehran research reactor was running out of fuel. They said to us that we should give our 3.5-percent uranium to such and such a country so that it turns it into 20-percent uranium. Then this country would give it to such and such a country to turn it into fuel. Then they said that with the permission of the masters of the world, this fuel can come to our country. That is to say, it would have to go through several mazes. And it would not reach any results. If we had decided to buy nuclear fuel for the research reactors that we have, they would not have given a bit of it to us without making the Iranian nation completely humiliated. Once I said that if the oil that we have, belonged to the Europeans and if we wanted to buy oil or petroleum from them, they would sell each barrel of it to us at an exorbitant price. They are such people. They thought that we would have to buy the 20-percent fuel from them and we would give in to their demands. That is why they created such obstacles. But our youth carried out research on it and they themselves produced the 20-percent fuel. Then they thought that we would not be able to produce fuel plates and fuel rods. But our youth built them and they installed them. Now, they are faced with a fait accompli that the Iranian nation presented them with.

Such complex and great work is being carried out. Why do not we carry out great work in sports? The rules and practices that exist in sports - whether individual sports such as wrestling and weightlifting or team sports - should be researched. You should add new ideas to such research and you should improve parts of it.

You should improve sports in terms of scientific approach. This improvement is related to sports which have research-based guidelines in the world. A number of our sports do not have research-based guidelines…”

Click here for the full text of the speech.

Photo credit: Khamenei.ir via Facebook

Tags: Iran, Khamenei, Nuclear, Olympics, Sports, Uranium Enrichment

Unusual Rivalry: Iran v. U.S. Over Ice Cream

April 1, 2013 | 1:45pm

Iranians apparently take their desserts seriously. The sweet final course of any meal even spills over into foreign policy.

In the latest rivalry between Iran and the United States, a Tehran ice cream company broke the Guinness record for the world’s largest ice cream cup — a full five tons worth of creamy chocolate. Baskin-Robbins held the previous record — a mere four tons of vanilla ice cream — produced in 2005. Iranian press reports made repeated note that Choopan Dairy had bested the American company’s record.

In a ceremony on April 1, Choopan held an ice cream social at the Tochal ski resort in the scenic Elborz Mountains. Over 10,000 reportedly turned out to witness the unveiling of the giant tub — and share in a mass tasting — on the final day of Nowruz, the Persian new year. Khashayar Baheri, Choopan's chief executive officer, claimed that it took eight hours to fill the massive ice cream carton. Guinness has yet to verify the claim, although its representatives were reportedly at the event. Click here to watch a report by Press TV, if the video below does not play.

Photo and Video Credit: Press TV

Tags: Choopan, Dairy, Ice cream, Iran, United States

U.N. Stats: Life Longer and Healthier In Iran

April 1, 2013 | 11:21am

A new U.N. report highlights Iran’s significant progress in providing citizens with a long and healthy life, access to education and a decent standard of living. Between 1980 and 2012, Iran’s life expectancy at birth increased by 22.1 years, mean years of schooling increased by 5.7 years, and expected years of schooling increased by 5.7 years. The gross national income per capita also increased by about 48 percent between 1980 and 2012.

The U.N. Human Development Index (HDI) is a summary measure of health, education and standard of living. Iran’s HDI is now 0.742 —in the high human development category—positioning the country at 76 out of 187 countries and territories. In 1980, just after the Islamic Revolution, Iran’s HDI was only 0.443. The following are excerpts from the 2013 U.N. Human Development Report.

Table A: Iran’s HDI trends based on consistent time series data, new component indicators and new methodology

	Life expectancy at birth	Expected years of schooling	Mean years of schooling	GNI per capita (2005 PPP$)	HDI value
1980	51.1	8.7	2.1	7,226	0.443
1985	50.1	8.7	2.8	7,210	0.46
1990	61.8	9.2	3.8	6,189	0.540
1995	68.2	11.2	5	6,674	0.618
2000	69.8	11.9	6	7,507	0.654
2005	71.3	11.5	7	9,060	0.685
2010	72.7	14.4	7.8	10,834	0.740
2011	73	14.4	7.8	10,936	0.742
2012	73.2	14.4	7.8	10,695	0.742

Figure 1 below shows the contribution of each component index to Iran (Islamic Republic of)’s HDI since 1980.

Long-term progress can be usefully assessed relative to other countries–both in terms of geographical location and HDI value. For instance, during the period between 1980 and 2012 Iran (Islamic Republic of), India and Pakistan experienced different degrees of progress toward increasing their HDIs (see figure 2).

Figure 2: Trends in Iran (Islamic Republic of)’s HDI 1980-2012

Iran (Islamic Republic of)’s 2012 HDI of 0.742 is below the average of 0.758 for countries in the high human development group and above the average of 0.558 for countries in South Asia. From South Asia, countries which are close to Iran (Islamic Republic of) in 2012 HDI rank and population size are Bangladesh and Pakistan, which have HDIs ranked 146 and 146 respectively (see table B).

Click here for the full report and summary.

Click here for the explanatory note on Iran.

Tags: Development, Economy, Education, Iran, Reports, Revolution, United Nations

The Islamists Are Coming

The Islamists Are Coming, edited by Robin Wright, surveys the rise of Islamist groups in the wake of the Arab Spring. Often lumped together, the more than 50 Islamist parties with millions of followers now constitute a whole new spectrum—separate from either militants or secular parties. They will shape the new order in the world’s most volatile region more than any other political bloc. Yet they have diverse goals and different constituencies. Sometimes they are even rivals.

United States Institute of Peace

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