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EVENT- Iran Sanctions: What the U.S. Cedes in a Nuclear Deal

             Since 2006, the United States has imposed more sanctions on Iran than any other country, so it may have to cede the most ground to get a nuclear deal in 2014. Over the years, Republican and Democratic administrations have issued at least 16 executive orders, and Congress has passed 10 statutes imposing punitive sanctions. What does Tehran want? What are the six major powers considering as incentives to cooperate? What isn’t on the table? The White House and Congress have imposed their own types of sanctions. What would either need to do to lift them? What difference would the various sanctions relief packages make to Iran?

 
            On July 8, four panelists will address the complex questions and challenges of sanctions in the Iran nuclear talks. It’s the last of three discussions hosted by an unprecedented coalition of eight Washington think tanks and organizations to coincide with the last three rounds of negotiations. A rundown of the second event is available on USIP’s The Iran Primer with a video, and on USIP’s blog The Olive Branch. The coalition includes the U.S. Institute of Peace, RAND, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, the Arms Control Association, the Center for a New American Security, the Stimson Center, Partnership for a Secure America, and the Ploughshares Fund.
 
Speakers at the July 8th event include:
 
  • Suzanne Maloney
    Brookings Institution fellow and former State Department Policy Planning
  • Kenneth Katzman
    Congressional Research Service and former CIA analyst
  • Elizabeth Rosenberg
    Center for New American Security and former Treasury Department senior advisor
  • Robin Wright, Moderator
    Journalist and Author, U.S. Institute of Peace and Woodrow Wilson International Center
     

Click here to RSVP

 

Two Arrested over World Cup Music Video

            Iranian police reportedly arrested two people for appearing in London-based Ajam Band’s World Cup music video. Police chief Col. Rahmatollah Taheri called the “Goal Iran” video “vulgar” because it shows unveiled women singing and dancing. He also noted that the video features from both outside and inside Iran, including the northern city of Shahroud, where the arrests were made, according to state news.

            Ajam Band bills itself as an Iranian roots music band that “tries to bring the epic and soulful spirit of the native music of Iran to a new generation.” In May, six young Iranians were detained for dancing and singing along to Pharell William’s hit “Happy.” The following is Ajam Band’s World Cup video.
 

Iran’s Influence in Afghanistan: Implications for US Drawdown

           The U.S. drawdown in Afghanistan and Hassan Rouhani’s election to Iran’s presidency “may provide a new opportunity for greater U.S.-Iran cooperation in Afghanistan,” according to a new study by the RAND Corporation. The two countries had convergent interests in 2001, when Tehran cooperated with Washington to help bring down the Taliban. But any new cooperation will likely depend on the result of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the world’s six major powers. Regardless, Iran “is poised to exercise substantial influence” in Afghanistan. The following are excerpts from the report.

Summary

 

            A state of rivalry between Iran and the United States, exacerbated by tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, has often meant competition in other areas, including Afghanistan. Tehran has viewed the decadelong U.S. presence in Afghanistan with anxiety. Iran’s fears of U.S. military strikes against its nuclear facilities, or perceived American plans to overthrow the Iranian regime, may have motivated it to provide measured military support to Afghan insurgents battling U.S. forces and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). Iran also actively opposes the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) being negotiated between Afghanistan and the United States.
 
            U.S. policymakers may naturally think that Iran will seek to exploit the drawdown and undermine American interests in Afghanistan. However, the departure of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, a new pragmatic government in Tehran, and a possible resolution to the nuclear crisis may provide greater cooperation between Tehran and Washington in Afghanistan.
 
            Iranian objectives in Afghanistan align with most U.S. interests. Therefore, Iranian influence in Afghanistan following the drawdown of international forces need not necessarily be a cause of concern for the United States. Much like the United States, Iran wants to see a stable Afghanistan with a government free of Taliban control, and Iran seeks to stem the tide of Sunni extremism in the region.
            The extent to which Iran would be willing to directly cooperate with the United States in Afghanistan largely depends on the status of the Iranian nuclear dispute. It is important to note, however, that even if U.S.-Iran tensions remain, Iran’s activities in Afghanistan are unlikely to run counter to the overall objectives of the United States.
 
            The United States should attempt to cooperate with Iran in countering narcotics in Afghanistan and encourage efforts to bring Tehran and Kabul to an agreement over water sharing. Becausethe Taliban insurgency is largely funded through drug trafficking, counternarcotics effortswould contribute to Afghanistan’s security. Tensions over scarce water resources could also fuelinstability if left unaddressed.
            While many of the disagreements between the two countries appear intractable and beholden to political interests in Tehran and Washington, combating drug trafficking and addressing water-usage issues would be relatively uncontroversial and nonpolitical. It could also lead to increased mutual trust that would benefit broader U.S.-Iran relations. To this end, the United States could lend logistical or financial support to the UN-facilitated Triangular Initiative, which fosters coordination among Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan in countering the drug trade. With regards to the Iran-Afghan water dispute, the United States should become active—through the UN and development organizations—in facilitating a mutually agreed upon water-usage system.
 
            Iran is hedging its bets in order to be prepared for a variety of outcomes following the U.S. drawdown. Iran has maintained close ties with Afghanistan’s Tajik and Hazara populations in order to gain political influence and protect its interests after the U.S. drawdown.
            On the other hand, Iran appears to be open to engaging with the Taliban after the U.S. drawdown. The extent of engagement will depend on the Taliban’s posture toward Iran and its treatment of the Afghan Shia.
 
            Iran will continue attempting to build soft influence in Afghanistan, especially in the realms of education and the media. Iran has been building and buttressing pro-Iranian schools, mosques,and media centers. Much of this activity centers on western and northern Afghanistan, inaddition to Kabul. Afghan schools have received thousands of Iranian books, many of whichespouse the values of the Islamic republic.
            However, Iran will face challenges in winning over the Afghan populace. The Pashtuns, who are more closely affiliated with Pakistan, remain wary of the Iranians. Meanwhile, many of the Shia Hazara do not favor Iran’s system of governance. In recent years, Hazara political parties have made efforts not to be seen simply as Iranian proxies, and are likely to seek support from Western countries as well.
 
            Although set to remain generally positive, Iran-Afghan relations likely will experience strain over water disputes and the issue of refugees. Exacerbated by drought, water-sharing disputes are likely to persist as a significant sticking point between Tehran and Kabul as Afghanistan’s plan to boost its agricultural sector will lead to increased water usage upstream, affecting Iran’s supplies. Both countries suffer from a shortage of water, with Iran’s eastern provinces bordering Afghanistan being particularly water challenged.
            In recent years, the status of Afghan refugees in Iran has become a highly politicized issue. Iran has more Afghan refugees than any other country after Pakistan. As economic conditions in Iran have deteriorated, Afghan refugees have come to be seen by many as a burden and have been subjected to discrimination and abuse at the hands of the Iranian government. Numerous protests have erupted in Afghanistan over Iran’s treatment of refugees. Furthermore, Iran has attempted to use the threat of mass deportation of Afghans as a means of pressuring the Kabul government to adopt policies favorable to the Islamic Republic.
 
            Following the withdrawal of U.S. forces and ISAF from Afghanistan in 2016, Iranian and U.S. strategy there will be influenced in large part by the actions of Pakistan, India, and Russia. As the world’s only superpower, the United States will continue to play an important role in Afghanistan following the ISAF drawdown. It is important, however, to bear in mind that U.S. influence there will be determined in large part by its relations with regional actors and, in turn, their relations with one another. Iran’s overall interests in Afghanistan align with the core U.S., Indian, and Russian objectives in Afghanistan: to prevent the country from again becoming dominated by the Taliban and a safe haven for al Qaeda. Therefore, Iranian cooperation with regional actors in Afghanistan could serve U.S. interests.
 
            In the event of a nuclear deal, it is prudent that the United States directly engage Iran in bilateral discussions regarding Afghanistan and pursue joint activities that would serve their mutual interests and build much-needed trust.
 
Click here for the full text.
 
 

Roundup of Briefings as Drafting Begins

            The world’s six major powers and Iran began drafting a final nuclear deal during a four-day round of talks that ended on June 20. “We have worked extremely hard all week to develop elements we can bring together when we meet for the next round,” said Michael Man, a spokesperson for E.U. foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told reporters that he was still hopeful about reaching an agreement by the July 20 deadline. But he warned that “major disputes remain” and that the other side should abandon its “excessive demands.” Iran and the P5+1 countries —Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States — plan to meet for two weeks starting on July 2. The following are excerpted remarks on the June talks held in Vienna, Austria.

Senior U.S. Official in a Background Briefing

QUESTION: It’s been said by diplomats from different sides that there still remains crucial differences in the talks. And do you think that’s why those brackets, as said by Iranian foreign minister, that are more than what’s in the text of the agreement, can you reach the deal by July 20th? And has there been any discussion on extending the deadline or not?
 
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: I will honestly say to you that we have not had considerations of extension. We are all focused on reaching July 20th. As I’ve said before, if we get close and we need a few more days, I don’t think anyone will mind. But we are very focused on getting it done now. We have all agreed that time is not in anyone’s interest; it won’t help get there. And if indeed by the time we get to July 20th we are still very far apart, then I think we will all have to evaluate what that means and what is possible or not.
 
QUESTION: Have you seen any greater realism from Iran this week on the key issues? And secondly, you said earlier you’re not sure yet whether Iran is ready to take the steps you think it needs to take. Well, what is it that – I’m curious of why. What is it that you’re not sure that they’re ready to do? What are you seeing that makes you say that?
 
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: There are very, very difficult decisions to be taken here by Iran. If they weren’t, we would have resolved this issue a very long time ago. It is also been expected, as in most negotiations, that the very hardest things are not decided until the very end of the negotiation. That probably is true when you sit down with your partner at dinner to decide what restaurant you’re going to go to. Everybody has their favorite, and then you finally get down to what your daughter wants, and that’s where you go.
 
So it’s probably a bad metaphor, so you should probably drop that. But nonetheless, everyone understands these – this is very difficult. And when I say I’m not sure whether they can get there, I go back to what you’ve heard from me before, which is this is a Rubik’s cube. All the pieces have to fit together. You could – I don’t know how many squares there are on a Rubik’s cube; maybe somebody here knows. But you could get to 98 percent of them and the last 2 percent won’t slide into place, and you don’t have an agreement. Because all of these pieces have to fit together to reach the two objectives that I’ve outlined, and that is to ensure they don’t have a nuclear weapon and that their program is exclusively peaceful.
 
QUESTION: The Iranian delegation invoked the 2005 – the March 2005 agreement in which they offered 3000 – to cap their program at 3000 centrifuges in 2005 and hold off on industrial capacity until trust was built. That option was obviously rejected in 2005. And though sanctions have imposed harsh penalties on Iran, it hasn’t stopped them from expanding to 19,000 installed centrifuges today, advancing beyond 20 percent (inaudible).
 
The implication of that example – obviously, Iran is – Iranians are very historically conscious. But to what extent does that example resonate with the P5+1 side and give incentive to prevent a repeat?
 
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Everyone who is in the room is certainly aware of the long and difficult history of negotiations to resolve this problem. But we are at a different time, a different place in history. And we have to see what we can do to go forward, not go backwards. And history may be instructive up to a point, but as I said, the context is different, the circumstances are different, the program is different. The concerns are probably even more profound than they were in 2005.
 
QUESTION: You said there are still many serious gaps remain. Are these gaps – could these gaps be solved at your level, or you should call in the ministers to bridge these gaps and to reach the final deal? And when could it be happened?
 
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Well, I think that everyone would be right to expect that at the appropriate time that ministers may become engaged. And quite frankly, ministers are already engaged. Anyone who knows Secretary Kerry knows that he is engaged, not only in terms of being briefed, but also giving me instructions about how to proceed, talking with his counterparts – he talks with Minister Lavrov and the other ministers in the P5+1. He will be seeing the High Representative in Brussels this week when he is in Europe, most likely.
 
And so I think all of the ministers are already quite engaged. Virtually every minister over the course of this negotiation has had direct conversations with Minister Zarif, some more often than others, depending upon the relationship. Messages have gone back and forth urging action and focus and problem solving. So ministers are already quite engaged in this process. When and if they show up physically in Vienna, I’m sure they may well. And that will be at the point where we perhaps have reached the narrowing of the gaps to the place where very tough political decisions need to be made and need to be made at the level of a minister.
 
And indeed, I would fully suspect that President Obama, who is completely briefed on this subject and follows it very carefully, and also through our interagency process issues guidance for how I should proceed, will also be engaged, and has already in the G7 meeting that we just had, talked with his counterparts about this negotiation. I’m sure will talk with his counterparts as appropriate to try to bring this to closure, if we can get there.
 
Minister Zarif has mentioned about each country is a little bit being different in claiming what they would like to see in the – on the paper. And you also mentioned about each country having different national positions. When that is expressed in the meeting room, would that not cause – you said that the – on one hand you said that the P5+1 is united on the numbers and so on, but if each country started to express different views, then would that not be confusing? And how would that be resolved at the end? That’s the question number one.
 
And then number two is that Iran mentioned that the – that Iran is not – or its centrifuge do not really focus on the numbers but rather on the capacity. Is that the approach that everybody has agreed to take? Or is this what they want to convince the P5+1 to follow? Thank you.
 
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Sure. We haven’t started to show that we have national positions. National positions are a fact in any multilateral negotiation. In the UN Security Council, everybody has a national position, and they aren’t identical. And what you try to do is where you can, if accommodating those national positions helps you reach the objective, you do. If they don’t, you try to find another route forward. So this is not an abnormal process, this is a very normal process.
 
So nothing is new here, and what we have tried to do in the proposal that we have put forth to Iran and that now we have a working document that we can use where we understand Iran’s positions, our positions, and now we’re working to see if we can, in fact, reach an agreement. We have tried to take into account in our coordination with each other each other’s national interests. But the national interest that overtakes all other national interests for every one of the countries sitting at the table is to make sure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon and that its program is entirely and exclusively peaceful. And because that is the paramount interest for every country sitting at the table, we have been able to maintain that unity.
 
QUESTION: Are you at a negotiating disadvantage since it’s more difficult for you to miss the July 20th deadline, because that would necessitate going back and asking Congress to sign on to more time, given that they’re so skeptical about a deal?
 
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: There’s no question Congress has been an important partner in Iran’s coming to the negotiating table. We consult with the Congress very, very frequently. I, in fact, will spend a good part of next week up on Capitol Hill in very close consultations with both the Senate and the House. We have to proceed forward together, and we all share the same objective, and that is one of the issues on which there is agreement across parties as well.
 
It is true that in the Joint Plan of Action there is no automatic extension. The language says that there can be one six-month extension if mutually agreed. There will be many issues involved if, in fact, that moment came. That moment is a hypothetical, and it is not something that we are contemplating at the moment at all.
 
QUESTION: Several of the countries went to go see Director General Amano of the IAEA. Can you tell us a little bit about how his program to go look at possible military dimensions fits in or doesn’t fit in to what a final agreement would look like, and how you deal with the fact that that process is probably going to be going on well beyond the time that you envision for an agreement if you can get one?
 
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: The American delegation visited with the director general as well and sort of joked with him that he may rue the day that these talks take place in Vienna, because we all descend on him to have conversations.
 
Clearly, the IAEA is a crucial part of this agreement. They have been crucial to the monitoring verification of the Joint Plan of Action, and although I don’t think the report is coming out but is still restricted, I would expect that the report that’s just come out about the implementation of the Joint Plan of Action to continue to say that Iran and the E3+3 have all complied, continued to comply with the Joint Plan of Action. The IAEA had to increase its budget, and very glad that everybody came forth to put up the funds so that they could do the monitoring and verification for the Joint Plan of Action. And clearly, they will be the key agency for the monitoring and verification of a comprehensive joint plan of action.
 
We have said from the beginning that addressing possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program is part of any comprehensive agreement. We understand that the timetables aren’t identical, but the timetables of much of what will be in the agreement won’t be done by July 20th. Whatever Iran agrees to do is going to take them longer than July 20th to do. So it is how that issue will be addressed in the agreement, and what will be necessary by July 20th that is under discussion.
 
I want to say one other thing, which is we are all – and I think a message delivered by everyone who has visited with the director general this week is that we want to be very cognizant that the IAEA is an independent agency with its own mandate and authorities, and although several of us are members of the board of governors of the IAEA, nonetheless we all need to be conscious of its independent role.
            June 20, 2014 in a background briefing

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif
 
      “Still we have not overcome disputes about major issues ... there has been progress, but major disputes remain.
      “We feel there are [still] maximalist stances. Iran will not give up the interests and the rights of the Iranian nation in the face of excessive demands.
      “The talks were intensive and still continue. The discussions started this morning with my meeting with Mrs. Ashton and now Mr. Araqchi and Ravanchi and the rest of our team are working on the introduction of the text (of the final deal) with Ashton's deputy.
            “The introduction deals with the goals, frameworks and mechanisms and the way differences can be resolved. We can't say that we have a common text as in many items there are different views over the content and the way the agreement should be written.
            “The opposite side has not attended the talks with the needed preparedness to enter serious negotiations on the basis of the realities.
            “We will continue the negotiations as long as they are useful and needed and until achievement of the results.
            “Position-taking would not lead to an agreement, we have come here to attain a solution. I am still hopeful about (attaining a) solution because I believe the issue is not complex.
           June 20, 2014 to the press
   
            “The Islamic Republic of Iran is ready to reach a solution and has offered logical proposals in this regard but the excessive demands by the other side could thwart the deal and in that case the world would come to know [who made] the negotiations reach an impasse.”
            June 26, 2014, according to press
 
           “One of the issues in the comprehensive nuclear accord with the G5+1 is sign up Additional Protocol, but we have not reached that stage in negotiations yet.”
            June 27, 2014 according to press
 
            “Iran is ready for a resolution and made rational proposals.
            “But the excessive demands of the other party could prevent an agreement.
            “At that time the world will know who was responsible for the deadlock in the nuclear negotiations.
           “We feel there are still maximalist stances on the other side, which I think should be dropped.”
            June 27, 2014 according to press
 
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Marziyeh Afkham
 
       “We have announced that we have entered the talks with seriousness and political will, and no change has occurred in Iran’s intention and willpower regarding acquisition of peaceful nuclear technology.
      “We are bracing for professional and tough talks and we hope that an agreement would be reached with the opposite party [showing] realism. Regardless of any conclusion we would reach in the nuclear talks, our national program will follow its normal course.”
      June 25, 2014 to the press
            
 
Spokesman of the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran Behrouz Kamalvandi
            “If the sanctions are removed, animosities will end and all issues pertaining to [Iran’s] nuclear dossier are resolved….we will be ready to sign the Additional Protocol; however, the parliament will be the final decision-maker in this regard.”
            June 2014 according to press
 
E.U. Spokesperson Michael Mann  
            “We have worked extremely hard all week to develop elements we can bring together when we meet for the next round in Vienna, beginning on 2 July.
            “We presented each other with a number of ideas on a range of issues, and we have begun the drafting process.
            “E3/EU+3 Political Directors will meet in Brussels next Thursday to continue discussions.”
            June 20, 2014 in a statement
 
            “The High Representative is focused on trying to get a deal as soon as possible. The most important thing is that it is a good and robust deal.”
            June 25, 2014, during an interview with Nasim Online news agency
 
Russian UN Envoy Vitaly Churkin
             “This is an issue [Iran’s ballistic missile program] that is outside their mandate. The [experts] should not interfere in this extremely sensitive process. And in particular it is unacceptable to pre-judge its outcome.”
            June 26, 2014, according to press
 
            “For our part, we will continue to do everything we can for the final closure of the complex issues related to Iran's nuclear program, with Tehran and removal of sanctions.”

            June 26, 2014, according to press

 

Senior Chinese Official Wang Qun
           “The fact that (we came up) with this text is progress ... in procedural terms.”
           June 20, 2014 to the press
 
Photo credit: European External Action Service via Flickr
 

 

UN: Iran Still Complying with Nuclear Deal

            The U.N. nuclear watchdog agency has confirmed that Iran is still complying with the interim nuclear deal, which took effect on January 20. Tehran has not enriched uranium to above the five percent level. It has also diluted half of its stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium, which could have been further enriched to 90 percent, weapons grade. Iran has also begun commissioning a facility to convert uranium enriched to five percent into oxide powder, which would be difficult to use to fuel a weapon. The following are excerpts from the International Atomic Energy Agency report.   

 
The Agency confirms that since 20 January 2014, Iran has:
 
i. not enriched uranium above 5% U-235 at any of its declared facilities;
 
ii. not operated cascades in an interconnected configuration at any of its declared facilities;
 
iii. completed the dilution – down to an enrichment level of no more than 5% U-235 – of half of the nuclear material that had been in the form of UF6 enriched up to 20% U-235 on 20 January 2014;
 
iv. fed 100 kg of UF6 enriched up to 20% U-235 into the conversion process at the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant (FPFP) for conversion into uranium oxide;
 
v.had no process line to reconvert uranium oxides back into UF6 at FPFP;
 
vi. not made “any further advances” to its activities at the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP), the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) or the Arak reactor (IR-40 Reactor), including the manufacture and testing of fuel for the IR-40 Reactor;
 
vii. provided an updated Design Information Questionnaire (DIQ) for the IR-40 Reactor and agreed with the Agency on safeguards measures for the reactor;
 
viii. begun the commissioning of the Enriched UO2 Powder Plant (EUPP) – the facility to be used for the conversion to oxide of the UF6 “newly enriched” up to 5% U-235;
 
ix. continued its safeguarded enrichment R&D practices at the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP), without accumulating enriched uranium;
 
x. not carried out reprocessing related activities at the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) and the Molybdenum, Iodine and Xenon Radioisotope Production (MIX) Facility or at any of the other facilities to which the Agency has access;
 
xi. provided information and managed access to the uranium mine and mill at Gchine,
to the Saghand Uranium Mine and the Ardakan Uranium Production Plant;
 
xii. continued to provide daily access to the enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow;
 
xiii. provided regular managed access to centrifuge assembly workshops, centrifuge rotor production workshops and storage facilities, and provided information thereon; and
 
xiv. provided, in relation to enhanced monitoring, the following: plans for nuclear facilities and a description of each building on each nuclear site;
 
-descriptions of the scale of operations being conducted for each location engaged in
specified nuclear activities; and
-information on uranium mines and mills, and on source material.
 
Click here for the full report.
 

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