Iran Primer's Blog
Khamenei: West Fueling Syria Conflict
April 30, 2013 | 12:23pm
Western intelligence services are fomenting “bloody sectarian, ethnic and national conflicts” in Syria and countries in transition, Iran’s supreme leader said on April 29. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that Western propaganda and “mercenary media” in the region are falsely portraying the Syrian conflict in sectarian terms – as Shiites vs. Sunnis. But the two sides are instead “supporters and opponents of anti-Zionist resistance,” he claimed. The following are excerpts from Khamenei’s opening speech at the World Conference of Ulama and Islamic Awakening. The two-day event gathers nearly 700 clerics and scholars from around the world.
U.S. and Western Role “[O]ne of the most dangerous things that threatens the movement of Islamic Awakening is the efforts to foment discord and turn these movements into bloody sectarian, ethnic and national conflicts. Currently, this plot is being seriously pursued by intelligence services of the West and Zionism with the help of petrodollars and bribed politicians from East Asia to North Africa and particularly in the Arab region. And the money that could have been spent to bring about happiness for mankind is being used to make threats, excommunicate, assassinate, bomb, shed Muslim blood and to kindle the fire of long-lasting grudges. Those who consider the unified power of Islam as an obstacle in the way of their evil goals have come to the conclusion that fanning the flames of conflicts inside the Islamic Ummah is the easiest way to achieve their satanic goal, and they have used differences of opinion in Islamic jurisprudence… as a pretext to excommunicate, shed blood and cause fitna [strife] and corruption.
A vigilant look at the scene of domestic conflicts clearly reveals the enemy’s hands behind these tragedies. These deceptive hands undoubtedly take advantage of the ignorance, prejudice and superficiality that exists in our societies and they add fuel to the fire. The responsibility of religious and political reformers and outstanding personalities is very heavy in this regard.
Currently, Libya, Egypt and Tunisia, Syria, Pakistan, and Iraq and Lebanon are in one way or another involved in or exposed to these dangerous flames. It is necessary to be extremely careful and to look for a remedy. It would be naïve to think that all of these things are due to ideological and ethnic factors and motives…”
Ethnic and Religious Conflict
“Propaganda campaigns of the West and dependent and mercenary media in the region pretend that the destructive war in Syria is a Shia-Sunni conflict and they create a safety margin for the Zionists and the enemies of resistance in Syria and Lebanon. This is while the two sides of the conflict in Syria are not Shia and Sunni, rather they are the supporters and opponents of anti-Zionist resistance. Neither the Syrian government is a Shia government, nor is the secular and anti-Islam opposition a Sunni group. The only achievement of the plotters of this calamitous scenario is that they have managed to make use of religious sentiments of simple-minded people to kindle this deadly fire. A look at the scene and those who are involved in it at different levels can clarify the issue for any just individual...”
Click here for the full text of the speech.
Photo Credit: Khamenei.ir via Facebook
Latest on the Race: Leader’s Ideal President
April 29, 2013 | 6:39pm
In a strong speech six weeks before the election, the supreme leader admonished presidential candidates against making empty promises or creating tension. Ayatollah Khamenei also defended the Guardian Council, which usually disqualifies 99 percent of candidates. In 2009, the council only cleared four out of more than 400 men and none of the 42 women who registered. Guardian Council members are “fair-minded, impartial, and insightful,” the supreme leader claimed. The next president must be “resistant against enemy pressure.” The following are excerpted remarks from Khamenei’s speech at an early May Day event.
“Iran needs a president who is brave and fearless in the international arena and in the face of arrogant powers, and who has planning, wisdom and foresight in the domestic arena, and believes in the resistance economy… A president must be a person who, first and foremost, believes in God, the people, and the constitution, and, secondly, must have an indomitable spirit… The Iranian nation seeks to realize great objectives and [carry out] great tasks, and is not one to surrender. And no one can speak to it using the language of force. Therefore, [the president] must be brave, fearless and resistant against enemy pressure and should not back down…
[Candidates] must not give people empty promises… but rather they must move forward with logical remarks based on the realities on the ground and reliance on God… [Presidents] should not create unnecessary costs and problems for the people, and should not cause concerns for or create tension among the people…
Those who plan to enter the election scene should enter the scene after a proper assessment, and it is the people who will decide in the end… As the late Imam Khomeini always emphasized, the participation of the Guardian Council in the election through checking the qualifications (of candidates) by fair-minded, impartial, and insightful people is auspicious…
They [Western nations] try to use economic pressure to create a rift between the nation and the Islamic establishment and dishearten the people.” April 27, in a speech to thousands of workers in Tehran
Photo Credit: Leader.ir
Part II: Sanctions Hit Iran’s Oil Production
April 29, 2013 | 3:53pm
Iran’s oil production dropped 17 percent in 2012, according to a new according to a new report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But Iran managed to remain the second-largest crude oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on average. Consumption of liquid fuels fell one percent in 2012. The following is a chart and excerpt from the report.
Iran's exports of crude oil and lease condensate declined to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, compared to 2.5 million bbl/d in 2011. This 39% decline in exports was coupled with a 17% drop in crude oil and condensate production and a 1% decline in liquid fuels consumption including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other products.
While the world's supply of oil increased by about 2%, or 1.8 million bbl/d in 2012, oil production in Iran declined by nearly 700,000 bbl/d from the 2011 level. Most of the 2012 drop in production is attributable to tightened sanctions. A smaller decline in 2011 resulted mainly from declining production in aging fields. Iran remained the second-largest OPEC crude oil producer on average during 2012, but it exceeded Iraq's production only narrowly. In August 2012, Iran's monthly crude oil production fell below Iraq's for the first time since 1989.
A new set of sanctions by the European Union became effective on April 1, 2013. The new sanctions bar EU insurance companies from providing coverage to any refiner and refinery operators that process crude oil of Iranian origin. The new provision will mostly affect refiners in South Korea and India, which rely heavily on European insurance providers. The new sanctions may further affect Iran's exports and production over the next few months as refiners try to find alternative suppliers of insurance.
Part I: Iran Oil Sales Plummet
Click here for the full report.
Part I: Iran Oil Sales Plummet
April 29, 2013 | 1:55pm
In 2012, Iran’s oil exports dropped to their lowest level since 1986, according to a new report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Exports declined 39 percent between from 2011 to 2012 alone due to tightened U.S. and E.U. sanctions. Production of crude oil and condensates also fell by 17 percent that year. The following is a chart and excerpt from the report.
In 2012, Iran's exports of crude oil and lease condensate dropped to their lowest level since 1986 (see chart above) as the United States and the European Union (EU) tightened sanctions targeting Iran's oil sector. Iran's 2012 net estimated oil export revenue, at $69 billion, was significantly lower than the $95 billion total generated in 2011. Oil exports make up 80% of Iran's total export earnings and 50% to 60% of its government revenue, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Sanctions affecting investment in Iran's oil sector have also been tightened, resulting in cancellation of new projects by several foreign companies; they also negatively affected existing projects. Following the implementation of sanctions in late-2011 and mid-2012, Iranian oil production dropped dramatically. Although Iran had been subject to four earlier rounds of United Nations sanctions, these much-tougher measures passed by the United States and the European Union have severely hampered Iran's ability to export its oil, which directly affected its production of petroleum and petroleum products.
The U.S. and EU measures prohibited large-scale investment in the country's oil and gas sector, and cut off its access to European and U.S. sources of financial transactions. Further sanctions were implemented against the Central Bank of Iran, while the EU imposed an embargo on Iranian oil and banned European protection and indemnity clubs (P&I Clubs) from providing Iranian oil carriers with insurance and reinsurance. The implementation of insurance-related sanctions was particularly effective in stemming Iranian exports, which affected not only European importers but also Iran's Asian customers who were forced to temporarily halt imports.
Part II: Sanctions Hit Hard Iran's Oil Production
Click here for the full report.
Hagel: Arms Deal Clear Signal to Iran
April 23, 2013 | 12:59pm
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel warned that a $10 billion arms deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is a “clear signal" that all options are on the table for preventing a nuclear-armed Iran. Hagel arrived in Israel on April 21 for his first visit as defense chief. Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and Hagel agreed that economic sanctions and diplomacy should be exhausted before considering a strike.
Ya’alon emphasized that a “credible military option” is necessary to convince Iran to abandon suspected military dimensions of its nuclear program. “[W]e keep our right and capabilities to defend ourselves by ourselves,” he warned. Hagel acknowledged Israel’s right to defend itself and make its own calculations. He spent three days in Israel before heading to Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The following are excerpted remarks by Hagel and top Israeli officials.
Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel
“[A]ll military options and every option must remain on the table in dealing with Iran. That's been a consistent position of mine, regardless of the positions I've held as United States senator and civilian.
I support the president's position on Iran. And it's very simple. And I have stated it here, and I've said it many times, as the president has. Our position is, Iran will not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, the prevention of Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, period…”
[R]egarding your point about whether Israel should strike Iran, as I said on that trip over here, Israel is a sovereign nation. Every sovereign nation has a right to defend itself. That calculation has to be made by the sovereign nation.
As to your question regarding any minor disagreements about timing, what I was referring to is intelligence agencies always are within ranges of their positions based on measurement of intelligence on all issues. And that doesn't necessarily always come out exactly the same way or in the same time schedule.
But I also believe I said that there was no question about our intelligence agencies working very clearly and closely together on this issue, and we are not only in complete agreement on the policy about Iran, but also we are in total agreement on -- if a time should get to a point here, where we will then have to develop other strategies or other options, and I don't think there's any daylight there or any gap…
Well, the sanctions on Iran are, I believe, as potent and deep and wide set of international sanctions that we've ever seen on any country. And those will continue to increase, but I -- I believe -- and there's a rather significant metrics and measurements that give you this information, that those sanctions are causing a tremendous amount of difficulty for Iran.
It is the policy of the United States that -- and many of our allies -- to work many tracks in dealing with Iran, and certainly international sanctions are one. And they are having an effect. Whether it leads to an outcome that we desire remains to be seen.
But in any event, that's why you use all the different tools that nations have working together. And as I said, the military option is always an option, and it is always on the table…” April 22, at a joint press conference with Defense Minister Ya’alon
“Israel and the United States see the threat of Iran exactly the same as do many other countries, not just in the Middle East. So I don't think there's any daylight there.
When you break down into the specifics of -- of the timing of when and if Iran decides to pursue a nuclear weapon, there may well be some differences, but our -- generally -- and, again, I can't speak for General Clapper -- I believe our intelligence is -- is generally pretty close to each other, as well as other intelligence agencies.
But the bottom line is that Iran is a threat. It's a real threat. And the United States' policy has been very clear on this. And I think everyone knows it. As other nations, the -- the Iranians must be prevented from developing that capacity to build a nuclear weapon and deliver it. And you work out from there…
I think the United States' course of action, as well as other nations' in the P5-plus-one and many others, working many tracks with Iran, the diplomatic track, the economic sanctions track. I mean, if you stop just for a moment and look at the U.N. sanctions, international sanctions on Iran, I don't know of an international regime of sanctions that have been more effective, have been more unified and tougher than what's being applied to Iran.
We know through many measurements that those sanctions are hurting Iran significantly. Now, does that assure that Iran is brought to a bargaining table or Iran would give up the possibility of achieving a goal of -- if that's their goal? And I'm not certain we know that, that that decision's been made alone, maybe not.
But I think we look at all the dynamics in play and use all the tracks. I've said, the president's said, all the leaders of the last couple of administrations have said that the military option is -- is one option that remains on the table, must remain on the table. So we've never taken an option off the table, but military options, I think most of us feel, should be the last option.
If that is an option that's required, then we'll have to make that decision, but I think it's our sense, the United States and many of our allies, that these other tracks do have some time to continue to try to influence the outcome in Iran.
There's an election coming up in June in Iran. No one can predict how that might affect the further direction of Iran in policy. So I think our policy is the correct policy. Certainly, Israel has every right and responsibility to make their own assessments, but we're working very closely and will continue to work very closely with Israel…
I don't think there's any question that that's [the arms deal under negotiation] another very clear signal to Iran. But I think that signal and that reality and that policy has been very clear to Iran for some time. But this -- this new set of military capabilities to Israel is not new in the sense that it has been the policy of the United States to continue to enhance the military qualitative edge for Israel. And so this just continues that policy and -- and that dimension...
When I said that Iran is a real threat, it isn't just the potential of being a nuclear threat. Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism. That in itself is a threat to not just the region, but to our interests in -- in the region and around the world. When you further expand that threat to the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons, it becomes pretty clear the dimension of the threat…” April 21, to the media enroute to Israel
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
“Israel appreciates deeply, the support, the military and security support, that it enjoys from the United States – it reflects a very deep alliance between our two countries and the defense of our common interests and our common values.
Nowhere are these values and interests challenged more than by the arming of terrorist groups by Iran with sophisticated weapons, and equally, Iran’s attempt to arm itself with nuclear weapons. This is a challenge that Israel cannot accept, and as you and President Obama have repeatedly said, Israel must be able to defend itself, by itself, against any threat. In any case, it is good to have you in Jerusalem. It is good to have the support, friendship and alliance of the United States. We deeply appreciate it.” April 23, at a meeting with Hagel
Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon
“The United States and Israel face common threats and challenges in our tough neighborhood, the Middle East, above all from Iran.
Iran not only threatens the security and stability of the Middle East, but of the entire world. Iran threatens to wipe Israel off the map. It backs Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. And it is assisting the Syrian regime to kill tens of thousands of innocent civilians. Iranian regime is involved in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, and more. And Iran is developing nuclear weapons…
But without a credible military option, there is no chance that the Iranian regime will realize that he has to stop the military nuclear project. And in certain circumstances, the military option should be exercised. So this is our very clear policy. And, of course, we keep our right and capabilities to defend ourselves by ourselves.” April 22, at a joint press conference with Hagel
President Shimon Peres
“The Iranian people are going to have elections very soon. I try to understand what do they want. Iran doesn't have a single enemy. Nobody threatened Iran. Why did their leaders decide to become a threat to others?
It's hard to understand because they don't need neither any sort of weapons. And if I were an Iranian, I would really try to see that our children are having enough food for breakfast and young people have an occasion to be educated and live in peace.
What's wrong with peace? Even if peace is not enriched uranium -- you know, you can make anything even without enriched uranium if nobody is threatening you.
And I think from that point of view, your visit is timely and meaningful. It is not just to pay a visit in this country. But it means that the message coming from you is that you are determined, as really a leader of the free world, not to permit Iran to make this terrible mistake and become nuclear.
If it can be achieved by diplomatic means, the better. Otherwise, they must know that just by diplomacy, it will not be forgiven. And the president spoke very clearly. I was watching your interview now on the television. You said actually the same thing.
And I have the full trust in your position, in your seriousness, because, really, Israelis understand that Iran is not just a threat to Israel. It's really a threat to the peace in the world, for no reason whatsoever. The world doesn't threaten Iran.
And it's a message, don't wait. You have a choice. You don't show animosity to Iran. You simply tell them not to make the Middle East a terrible place of threats and the mass destruction weapons. You can see what's happening now in Syria…
We can and we should help other people to overcome their existential problems without going into politics or religion. And we can prevent the Iranians from making themself a catastrophe for their own sake and for the rest of the world.” April 22, to the media with Hagel
The Islamists Are Coming
The Islamists Are Coming, edited by Robin Wright, surveys the rise of Islamist groups in the wake of the Arab Spring. Often lumped together, the more than 50 Islamist parties with millions of followers now constitute a whole new spectrum—separate from either militants or secular parties. They will shape the new order in the world’s most volatile region more than any other political bloc. Yet they have diverse goals and different constituencies. Sometimes they are even rivals.
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