United States Institute of Peace

The Iran Primer

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Defense Secretary Warns Iran

On Dec. 2, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta made extensive remarks about Iran to the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center. The following are excerpts.
 
        Iran’s continued drive to develop nuclear capabilities, including troubling enrichment activities and past work on weaponization that has now been documented by the IAEA, and its continued support to groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and other terrorist organizations make clear that the regime in Tehran remains a very grave threat to all of us…        
   
       Iran must ultimately realize that its quest for nuclear weapons will make it less, not more, secure.  These efforts are increasing Tehran’s isolation and I continue to believe that pressure – economic pressure, diplomatic pressure – and strengthened collective defenses are the right approach.  Still, it is my department’s responsibility to plan for all contingencies and to provide the president with a wide range of military options should they become necessary.  
           
       That is a responsibility I take very seriously because when it comes to the threat posed by Iran, the president has made it very clear that we have not taken any options off the table…
       
        Iran is isolating itself from the rest of the world.  It is truly becoming, particularly as a result of the attack on the British Embassy, a pariah in that region.  Their own government is off balance in terms of really trying to establish any kind of stability even within Iran…  
 
[Question:] Mr. Secretary, how long do you believe a military attack on Iran would postpone it from getting a bomb? 
 
       At best it might postpone it maybe one, possibly two years.  It depends on the ability to truly get the targets that they’re after.  Frankly, some of those targets are very difficult to get at.  
           
       That kind of, that kind of shot would only, I think, ultimately not destroy their ability to produce an atomic weapon, but simply delay it – number one.  Of greater concern to me are the unintended consequences, which would be that ultimately it would have a backlash and the regime that is weak now, a regime that is isolated would suddenly be able to reestablish itself, suddenly be able to get support in the region, and suddenly instead of being isolated would get the greater support in a region that right now views it as a pariah.  
           
        Thirdly, the United States would obviously be blamed and we could possibly be the target of retaliation from Iran, striking our ships, striking our military bases.  Fourthly – there are economic consequences to that attack – severe economic consequences that could impact a very fragile economy in Europe and a fragile economy here in the United States.  
           
        And lastly I think that the consequence could be that we would have an escalation that would take place that would not only involve many lives, but I think could consume the Middle East in a confrontation and a conflict that we would regret.   So we have to be careful about the unintended consequences of that kind of an attack… 
           
        In addition, once Iran gets a nuclear weapon, then they’re not – you will have an arms race in the Middle East.  What’s to stop Saudi Arabia from getting a nuclear weapon?  What’s to stop other countries from getting nuclear weapons in that part of the world?  Suddenly we have an escalation of these horrible weapons that, you know, I think create even greater devastation in the Middle East.  
           
         So a key for all of us – for all of us is to work together – together – to ensure that that does not happen.  We have made good progress in these efforts.  We continue to make good progress in these efforts.  That’s where we ought to continue to put our pressures, our efforts, our diplomatic, our economic, experts working together to make sure that that does not happen.  
           
         You always have as a last resort – as the prime minister said – the last resort of military action, but it must be the last resort, not the first. 
           
[Question:] Is the chief priority of U.S. policy toward Iran to moderate the nuclear ambitions of the Iranian regime, or to change the Iranian regime?  Will this regime be willing to change its behavior? 
 
         The effort that we’re concerned about is to make sure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon, first.  Secondly, we would like to have an Iran that becomes part of the international community and that it decides that it is going to engage with the rest of the world, as opposed to isolating itself, as opposed to supporting terrorists, as opposed to trying to influence and support those that attack our country and attack others in that region. 
 
 

New European Sanctions on Iran

On Dec. 1, the European Union issued the following statement to explain its new sanctions on Iran:
 
The Council adopted the following conclusions:

1. "The Council reiterates its serious and deepening concerns over the nature of Iran's nuclear
programme, and in particular over the findings on Iranian activities relating to the
development of military nuclear technology, as reflected in the latest IAEA report. In this
regard, the Council strongly supports  the resolution adopted by the IAEA Board of
Governors, which expresses deep and increasing concerns about unresolved issues and
stresses the grave concern posed by Iran’s continued refusal to comply with its international
obligations and to fully co-operate with the IAEA.
 
2. In the light of these concerns, the Council has today designated a further 180 entities and
individuals to be subject to restrictive measures. These designations include entities and
individuals directly involved in Iran’s nuclear activities, which are in violation of UNSC
resolutions; entities and individuals owned, controlled or acting on behalf of the Islamic
Republic of Iran Shipping Line (IRISL); and members of, as well as entities controlled by, the
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
 
3. In accordance with the European Council Declaration of 23 October, the Council further
agreed that, given the seriousness of the situation, including the acceleration of the near 20%
uranium enrichment activities by Iran, in violation of six UNSC resolutions and eleven IAEA
Board resolutions, and the installation of centrifuges at a previously undeclared and deeply
buried site near Qom, as detailed in the IAEA report, the EU should extend the scope of its
restrictive measures against Iran.
 
4. In particular, the Council agreed to broaden existing sanctions by examining, in close
coordination with international partners, additional measures including measures  aimed at
severely affecting the Iranian financial system, in the transport sector, in the energy sector,
measures against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as in other areas. The
Council tasked preparatory Council bodies to further elaborate these measures for adoption,
no later than by the next Foreign Affairs Council.
 
5. The Council again reaffirmed the longstanding commitment of the European Union to work
for a diplomatic solution of the Iranian nuclear issue in accordance with the dual track
approach. The Council welcomes and fully supports the continuing efforts of the EU High
Representative on behalf of the E3+3 aimed at convincing Iran to enter into meaningful talks
on concrete confidence building measures. The Council calls upon Iran to respond positively
to the offer of negotiations in the EU High Representative’s latest letter by demonstrating its
readiness to seriously address existing concerns on the nuclear issue.
 
6. The Council reaffirms that the objective of the EU remains to achieve a comprehensive and
long-term settlement which would build international confidence in the exclusively peaceful
nature of the Iranian nuclear program, while respecting Iran’s legitimate rights to the
peaceful uses of nuclear energy under the NPT."

 

Tags: EU, Sanctions

Key Quotes on Iran-Britain Tensions

Annika Folkeson

 
        After the Iranians stormed the British embassy in Tehran on Nov. 29, Britain closed the Iranian embassy in London and expelled all Iranian diplomats. Britain also evacuated its diplomats in Tehran. The new tensions followed London’s new sanctions on all Iranian banks on Nov. 21 and the Iranian parliament’s decision on Nov 27 to downgrade relations with Britain. The following are quotes on the tensions between London and Tehran from top officials.
 
                                                                       
BRITAIN
 
British Foreign Secretary William Hague on Nov. 30
"This is a breach of international responsibilities of which any nation should be ashamed…We have now closed the British embassy in Tehran. We have decided to evacuate all our staff…We require the immediate closure of the Iranian embassy in London and all staff must leave in the next 48 hours.”
 
"Iran is a country where opposition leaders are under house arrest, more than 500 people have been executed so far this year and where genuine protest is ruthlessly stamped on…The idea that the Iranian authorities could not have protected our embassy or that this assault could have taken place without some degree of regime consent is fanciful."
 
British Prime Minister David Cameron on Nov. 30
"The Iranian government must recognize that there will be serious consequences for failing to protect our staff…We will consider what these measures should be in the coming days."
 
"That should be our number one concern, their [the British diplomats’] safety, their security, and making sure that those are maintained…After that we will consider taking some very tough action in response to this completely appalling and disgraceful behavior by the Iranians."
 
                                                                        IRAN
 
Statement by the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the British Embassy incident on Nov. 29
“Following the protest demonstration by students that led the demonstration to get out of control, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran expressed regrets for some of the unacceptable behaviors by few demonstrators that were carried out in spite of the efforts made by the police forces and strengthening the forces to protect the Embassy. The Ministry has also requested the relevant officials to immediately investigate the case and to take necessary measures in this connection.
 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs while respecting the international laws and regulations and emphasizing on the immunity of diplomatic places, reiterates further on the commitment of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran to safeguard and protect the diplomatic places and personnel… It is conceded that the case will be followed through legal channels and the relevant authorities.
 
Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani on Nov. 30
"The Security Council's reaction to the student protests is a tactic to hide the truth about the U.S. and Britain's illegal actions against Iran recently."
 
Iranian Member of Parliament Seyed Amir Hossein Qazizadeh Hashemi on Nov. 30
"The move by the Iranian youth at the British embassy was the occupation of the second den of spies.”
 
Iranian MP Zohreh Elahian on Nov. 30
"Students will not keep mum about [the] threat and sanctions on Iran."
 
                                                            UNITED STATES
 
White House Statement on the Storming of the British Embassy in Tehran on Nov. 29
The United States condemns in the strongest terms the storming of the British Embassy in Tehran.  Iran has a responsibility to protect the diplomatic missions present in its country and the personnel stationed at them.  We urge Iran to fully respect its international obligations, to condemn the incident, to prosecute the offenders, and to ensure that no further such incidents take place either at the British Embassy or any other mission in Iran. Our State Department is in close contact with the British government and we stand ready to support our allies at this difficult time.
 
 
 
Annika Folkeson works for the Center for Conflict Management at the U. S. Institute of Peace.
 
 

The Russia and China Factors in Sanctions

 

Mark N. Katz
 
What role is Russia playing - helper or hinderer – in international diplomatic efforts on Iran, and why?
 
The major Western powers now view Moscow as hindering their efforts to squeeze Iran. Between 2006 and 2011, Russia agreed to six U.N. Security Council resolutions against Iran over its failure to comply with the international community on its controversial nuclear program. But Moscow went along with each resolution only after Western powers agreed to less stringent sanctions than initially proposed. The level of cooperation has eroded in recent months, however. One reason that the United States, Britain and Canada imposed new unilateral sanctions on Iran on Nov. 21 was that it could not get Russia (or China) to back further punitive action at the United Nations.
 
Moscow, in turn, views Western pressure to cooperate on new sanctions as creating unnecessary risks for Russia’s relations with Tehran. In recent years, Iran has been helpful to Russia on several sensitive foreign policy issues. Moscow is specifically grateful for Tehran’s cooperation in ending the Tajik civil war in 1997 and for its restrained position on the separatist rebellions in Chechnya and other predominantly Muslim republics inside Russia’s North Caucasus region. In the past, both countries have also opposed the Taliban in Afghanistan (though Iran’s relationship with it more recently has been somewhat ambiguous)
 
Like other U.N. Security Council members, Moscow has grown increasingly concerned about Iran’s nuclear intentions.  And Russian leaders are reportedly annoyed with Tehran for relying on Moscow to block additional sanctions—for little cooperation or payoff in return. Yet Moscow views this issue differently than Western governments do.
“Russia also considers a nuclear Iran to be a very unpleasant and undesirable development of events, but not as catastrophic as the Americans see it” observed Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs. “Tehran’s potential opportunities to create problems in the Russian sphere of interests are great.” 
 
What role is China playing - helper or hinderer – in international diplomatic efforts on Iran, and why?
 
China has taken the same position as Russia on the U.N. resolutions. In the past, it too pressed to have them watered down before agreeing to either support or not veto the resolutions. Today, Beijing also does not support new sanctions on Iran. It sees little incentive in cooperating with moves by the United States, Britain, France and Germany. In fact, Western sanctions have contributed to a dramatic increase in Iranian trade with—and economic dependence on—China. 
 
What are the common denominators in the Russian and Chinese strategies, and how much do they coordinate their positions?
 
Up until now, Russia and China have taken similar positions about U.N. sanctions and how far they should go. Their interests have been similar so far, although how much Moscow and Beijing actually coordinate their efforts is unclear.  The United States and other Western nations now fear that Russia and China are effectively encouraging Tehran to believe that Moscow and Beijing will shield Iran from further sanctions.  At the same time, both countries want Tehran to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Russia had hoped that Western sanctions might actually increase Russian-Iranian trade as an alternative.  But while Russian-Iranian commerce did grow to about $4 billion in 2010—ironically about the same size as trade between Russia and Israel—this is dwarfed by Chinese-Iranian trade, which was approximately $28 billion in 2010. (Some analysts estimate that China’s trade with Iran may be ten times the volume of commerce between Russia and Iran.)
 
What does this mean for further action at the UN Security Council? And for U.S. policy, especially after the new report by IAEA.

For Russian strategists, the West’s obsession with sanctioning Iran over the nuclear issue appears to be counter-productive.  They also view Western insistence on imposing further sanctions as either naïve or sinister—or both.  In the past, Moscow occasionally found it useful to go along with the West, although often after long delays. The Russian calculation was that imposing sanctions against Tehran might elicit concessions for Russia from the West or Iran--or both.  But Moscow is unlikely to support more serious sanctions that it views as unlikely to change Iranian nuclear policies but which will generate more problems for Russia and potentially benefit China at the expense of everyone else.
 
Mark N. Katz is a professor of government and politics at George Mason University.

 

Republican Candidates on Iran

Annika Folkeson


       The Republican candidates for president outlined their positions on Iran during two foreign policy debates on Nov. 12 and Nov. 22, 2011. In alphabetical order, the following are excerpts of their statements on issues such as sanctions, military action, and support for the opposition.


Michele Bachmann


If you look at Iran and if you look at Pakistan and if you look at the links with Syria, because Iran is working through proxies like Syria, through Hezbollah, through Hamas, it seems that the table is being set for worldwide nuclear war against Israel. And if there's anything that we know, President Obama has been more than willing to stand with Occupy Wall Street, but he hasn't been willing to stand with Israel. Israel looks at President Obama and they do not see a friend…

Why is it that we're talking about Israel having to make a strike against Iran? It's because Iran has announced they plan to strike Israel. They've stated, as recently as August just before President Ahmadinejad came to the U.N. General Assembly. He said that he wanted to eradicate Israel from the face of the earth. He has said that if he has a nuclear weapon he will use it to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. He will use it against the United States of America. This isn't just an idle threat. This is a reality.


Herman Cain


The first thing that I would do is to assist the opposition movement in Iran that's trying to overthrow the regime. Our enemies are not the people of Iran, it's the regime. And a regime change is what they are trying to achieve. Secondly, we need to put economic pressure on Iran, by way of our own energy independence strategy.  By having our own energy independence strategy, we will impact the price of oil in the world markets, because Iran uses oil not only as a means of currency, but they use it as a weapon…

Secondly, we would then work to increase sanctions on Iran, along with our friends and our allies. .. I do believe that they have a nuclear weapons program and they are closer to having nuclear weapons…The only we can stop them is through economic means.

I would not entertain military opposition…There's one other thing that we could do. We could deploy our ballistic missile defense capable war ships strategically in that part of the world. We have the biggest fleet of those warships in the world. And we could use them strategically in the event that they were able to fire a ballistic missile.

On assistance for an Israeli attack on Iran: I would first make sure that [Israel] had a credible plan for success, clarity of mission and clarity of success.  Remember, when you talk about attacking Iran, it is a very mountainous region. The latest reports say that there may be 40 different locations, and I would want to make sure that we had a good idea from intelligence sources where these are located. And if Israel had a credible plan that it appeared as if they could succeed, I would support Israel, yes… But I pointed out that that is highly unlikely, given the terrain, the mountainous terrain in Iran.


Newt Gingrich

First of all, as maximum covert operations-- to block and disrupt the Iranian program including taking out their scientists, including breaking up their systems. All of it covertly, all of it deniable. Second, maximum coordination with the Israelis in a way which allows them to maximize their impact in Iran. Third, absolute strategic program comparable to what President Reagan, Pope John Paul II, and Margaret Thatcher did in the Soviet Union, of every possible aspect short of war of breaking the regime and bringing it down. And I agree entirely with Governor Romney, if in the end, despite all of those things the dictatorship persists, you have to take whatever steps are necessary to break its capacity to have a nuclear weapon…

We ought to have a massive all-sources energy program in the United States designed to, once again, create a surplus of energy here so we could say to the Europeans pretty cheerfully, that all the various sources of oil we have in the United States, we could literally replace the Iranian oil.

We need a strategy of defeating and replacing the current Iranian regime with minimum use of force. We need a strategy, as Rick Santorum was saying, of being honest about radical Islam and designing a strategy to defeat it wherever it happens to exist…

But if we were serious, we could break the Iranian regime, I think, within a year, starting candidly with cutting off the gasoline supply to Iran, and then, frankly, sabotaging the only refinery they have.

On support for a military strike:
Only as a last recourse and only as a step towards replacing the regime. No bombing campaign which leaves the regime in charge is going to accomplish very much in the long run. You have to seriously talk about regime replacement, not just attacking them.
 
Jon Huntsman
 
We missed the Persian spring…And we have nuclear-ization in Iran. Centrifuges spinning. At some point, they're going to have enough in the way of fissile material out of which to make a weapon. That's a certainty… Sanctions aren't going to work…because the Chinese aren't going to play ball and the Russians aren't going to play ball. And I believe Iran has already -- the mullahs have already decided they want to go nuclear.

Why? They have looked at North Korea. They've got a weapon. Nobody touches them. They look at Libya. Libya gave up their weapon in exchange for friendship with the world. Look where they are. So I say let's let history be our guide. We saw the end of the Ottoman Empire in 1919. We saw the region transform and make itself into something different. We saw changes in 1947. I think we do our national interests a disservice by jumping in too soon and taking up sides with people we don't fully understand, Islamist groups, pan-Arab groups. Our interest in the Middle East is Israel. And our interest is to ensure that Iran does not go nuclear.


Ron Paul


On a military strike against Iran: It isn't worthwhile. The only way you would do that is you would have to go through Congress. We, as commander in chief, aren't making the decision to go to war…You go to the Congress and find out if our national security is threatened. And I'm afraid what's going on right now is similar to the war propaganda that went on against Iraq. And, you know, they didn't have weapons of mass destruction.


On support for an Israeli attack on Iran: No, I wouldn't do that. But there would be good reasons because I don't expect it to happen…The Mossad leader that just retired said it would be the stupidest thing to do in the world. And it's a big argument over in Israel. They're not about to do this…Why does Israel need our help? We need to get out of their way…We don't even have a treaty with Israel. Why do we have this automatic commitment that we're going to send our kids and send our money endlessly to Israel? So I think they're quite capable of taking care of themselves.


Rick Perry


The issue that has not been raised is that this country can sanction the Iranian Central Bank right now and shut down that country's economy. And that's what this president needs to do and the American people need to stand up and force him to make that stand today…


One of the options is to have a no-fly zone over Syria at the same time you're putting those types of sanctions against Iran. And in that moment, they will understand that America is serious. This president refuses to do that, and it's another show of lack of leadership from the president.
 
Mitt Romney


What [President Obama] should have done is speak out when dissidents took the streets and say, "America is with you." And work on a covert basis to encourage the dissidents. Number two, he should have put in place crippling sanctions against Iran…Finally, the president should have built [a] credible threat of military action, and made it very clear that the United States of America is willing, in the final analysis, if necessary, to take military action to keep Iran from having a nuclear weapon. Look, one thing you can know-- and that is if we reelect Barack Obama, Iran will have a nuclear weapon. And if we elect Mitt Romney, if you'd like me as the next president, they will not have a nuclear weapon…


If all else fails, if after all of the work we've done, there's nothing else we can do beside take military action, then of course you take military action. It is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon.


The right course in America is to stand up to Iran with crippling sanctions, indict Ahmadinejad for violating the Geneva -- or the Genocide Convention, put in place the kind of crippling sanctions that stop their economy. I know it's going to make gasoline more expensive. There's no price which is worth an Iranian nuclear weapon. And the right course for Israel is to show that we care about Israel, that they are our friend, we'll stick with them. If I'm president of the United States, my first trip -- my first foreign trip will be to Israel to show the world we care about that country and that region.


Rick Santorum


This is the most important national security issue that we're going to be dealing with here in this year. And that's the issue of Iran getting a nuclear weapon…I proposed exactly the things that Herman and Mitt Romney suggested, which was to give money to the rebel forces there to help the pro-democracy movement and to put tough sanctions in place.

I disagree with Newt [about] more sanctions and providing, you know, more support for the pro-democracy movement isn't going to be enough, in time…There have been scientists turning up dead in Russia and in Iran. There have been computer viruses. There have been problems at their facility. I hope that the United States has been involved with that. I hope that we have been doing everything we can covertly to make sure that that program doesn't proceed.
 
 

Annika Folkeson works for the Center for Conflict Management at the U. S. Institute of Peace.


 

The Islamists Are Coming

The Islamists Are Coming, edited by Robin Wright, surveys the rise of Islamist groups in the wake of the Arab Spring. Often lumped together, the more than 50 Islamist parties with millions of followers now constitute a whole new spectrum—separate from either militants or secular parties. They will shape the new order in the world’s most volatile region more than any other political bloc. Yet they have diverse goals and different constituencies. Sometimes they are even rivals.

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