United States Institute of Peace

The Iran Primer

Youth in Iran Part 4: Crazy for Sports

Garrett Nada

            Faced with few social options or outlets to let off steam, Iran’s young have turned almost fanatically to sports. The first post-revolution generation now includes some world-class athletes—both male and femaleas well as millions of diehard sports fans. Iran’s youth claimed 12 medals at the 2012 London Olympics—more than any other Middle Eastern country.
            But sports are not limited to top achievers. Street sports are just as popular. The concrete jungle of Tehran now has dedicated skate parks where amateur bikers and skaters hold impromptu competitions. And the girls are into as many athletics as the boys.

       The Iranian passion for sport was reflected in the street celebrations after Iran qualified for the 2014 World Cup by defeating South Korea. The celebrations on June 18 were similar to the outpouring after Hassan Rouhani won the presidential election three days earlier. Soccer reigns supreme among youth. But skateboarding, taekwondo, snowboarding and other sports are also gaining ground.
      Youth and sport are so intertwined that the government created a Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sport in 2011, which has even allowed women to participate. Nine female athletes represented Iran in the 2012 London Olympics in archery, rowing, shooting, shot put, table tennis and taekwondo. At the 2010 Olympic Games in Vancouver, skier Marjan Kalhor became the first Iranian female to compete in the Winter Olympics. But finding uniforms that conform to both international standards and Iran’s strict dress code has often posed a challenge. Many now complete in sports wearing long pants and hijab (headscarf).
            Elham Asghari wore an extra 13 pounds of clothing when she set a new women’s breaststroke record for swimming 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) in the Caspian Sea. She wore a full diving suit, long cape and headscarf. But Iran’s sport ministry would not recognize the record set on June 11 because her “feminine features” were showing when she got out of the water. Asghari explained the controversy in a YouTube video subtitled in English. 
 
 
Skateboarding, BMX
            In athletics, young Iranians are no longer isolated. They keep up with the latest global trends through Facebook and YouTube. Skateboarding, rollerblading and BMXbicycle motocross are increasingly popular, especially in Tehran and other major cities. Security guards usually do not allow skaters to perform stunts in parks or public places, either for safety concerns or because they are a nuisance to some. So MJ Rahimi, a skateboard coach, built a skate park several years ago at Tehran’s Enghelab Sports Complex.
            Red Bull, an Austrian energy drink producer, then hosted Iran’s first major skateboard competition. Local newspapers, magazines and television stations covered the event. The government took interest and invested in additional skate parks. The T Sixty skate team shows off their tricks in the following video from the Tehran skate park.
 

           
            Bikers are as daring as their Western counterparts. Members of the ZanKo freestyle team offered training for young Iranians interested in BMX in the poster below.  
 
Soccer

            Soccer is the most popular sport in Iran— outdoor for young males and mainly indoor futsal for young females. Iranians have taken their love of soccer off the field and into the streets. Freestyle football is a one-man sport that has more in common with breakdancing than soccer. Mohammad Akbari from the “PersianBall Crew” juggles, balances and spins a ball in the following video. 


 
            Women are banned from attending men’s matches, although some devoted fans have dressed as men to enter stadiums. But they have their own clubs and competitions. In July, the national Iranian women’s team won second place in futsal, a form of indoor soccer, at the Asian Indoor and Martial Arts Games. The feat even won the attention of newly elected President Hassan Rouhani, who tweeted his congratulations.
 
            Uniforms have been an issue in regular world-class soccer for women. The women’s national soccer team had hoped to qualify for the 2012 Olympic Games. But the team withdrew from a qualifying match in 2011 because the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) would not allow women to play with their necks covered. FIFA lifted the ban on headscarves in March 2012. 
Snowboarding
            Snowboarders account for up to 30 percent of Iranians on the slopes, according to the World Snowboard Guide. More than a dozen resorts have helped popularize snow sports, especially among youth. In recent years, Hype, a Dubai-based energy drink company, has hosted snowboarding exhibitions in Iran such as the one in the following video. 
 

 
Volleyball

            Volleyball is increasingly popular as well. The men's national team competed in the Federation Internationale de Volleyball World League Finals for the first time in summer 2013. The team is now ranked 12 worldwide by the federation.

            But broadcasting matches is a problem for Iranian television because female fans at international matches are not wearing Islamic dress. Covering the volleyball games has been “more difficult than airing the [presidential] debates,” said Ezatollah Zarghami, head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), according to news website Asr Iran. IRIB broadcast a June 30 match in Sardinia versus Italy with a seven-second delay to check for images of women not wearing Islamic dress like the picture below.
 
           
            Volleyball is Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s favorite sport, according to his Twitter account. 
 
Taekwondo
            The Korean martial art gained ground in the 1960s, but young Iranians are now among the world’s top Taekwondo competitors. Mohammad Bagheri Motamed won a gold medal at the 2009 World Taekwondo Championships in Copenhagen and the silver medal at the 2012 London Olympic Games.
            Women have also taken to the sport. In May 2013, four Iranian women won gold or silver medals at the Carthage International Open in Tunisia. Sara Khoshjamal Fekri faced off against a Tunisian opponent at the 2008 Beijing Olympics in the photo below. 
 
 
Basketball
            Iran’s caliber of basketball is constantly improving. The Super League, the equivalent of the National Basketball Association (NBA), has become more competitive with the hiring of foreign coaches and players, especially Americans and Europeans. Iranian-American Jonas Lalehzadeh (below) was the league’s top scorer for the 2012-2013 season. Click here for an interview with the six-foot-five-inch point guard.
 
           
            Iran’s national team competed in the 2008 Olympics, the first time since 1948. Now the Islamic Republic now has one of the top teams in Asia. Iran’s players are referred to as the “West Asian giants” on the continent. In August 2013, the men’s team won the International Basketball Federation Asia Championship—its third title in four years. Hamed Haddadi, the first Iranian player in the U.S. National Basketball Association (NBA), scored 29 of the team’s 85 points against the Philippines national team.  
 
Garrett Nada is a Program Assistant at USIP in the Center for Conflict Management.

Photo credits: Zanko (Freestyle) team via
FacebookSarah Khoshjamal by Bridget Coila from Beijing, China (other0065  Uploaded by Traleni) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons, Jonas Lalehzadeh via Facebook
 
Online news media are welcome to republish original blog postings from this website in full, with a citation and link back to The Iran Primer website (www.iranprimer.com) as the original source. Any edits must be authorized by the author. Permission to reprint excerpts from The Iran Primer book should be directed to permissions@usip.org
 

 

Youth in Iran Part 3: The Politics of Fashion

Maral Noori
            They have bare forearms! They have shapely legs! They even have daring waistlines! And most of all, they vote!
            To understand politics in Iran these days, outsiders also have to understand female fashion. A woman’s right-to-wear was an implicit theme in the election of Iran’s new President Hassan Rouhani, who won huge chunks of the young and female vote in June by pledging to “minimize government interference” in the country's cultural affairs. He acknowledged demands for greater individual freedoms.

      Shortly after his election, Rouhani was more specific on his official English-language Twitter account. “If some1 doesn’t comply with rules for clothing, person’s virtue shuldn’t come under question. Our emphasis shud b on virtue,” @hassanrouhani tweeted July 3.
      The political reality is that Rouhani was responding to Iran’s expressive young women, for whom dress has become a symbolic way to speak their mind. A new generation of glam fashionistas, both designers and consumers, has discarded lackluster street clothes that were a classical stereotype of the Islamic Republic.
      Fiery reds, flashy yellows, bright blues and brassy greens are replacing the dark, drab and dreadful—and defying rigid dress restrictions that have inhibited Iranian women from showing their shapes or individuality since the 1979 revolution.
            The new hipster leggings, studs and leather now worn by Iran’s home-grown Material Girls sometimes tempt government dictates. But the regime now has trouble pushing back fashion trends when 70 percent of its females are under 35—and part of Iran’s largest voting bloc. Designers are utilizing social media, especially Facebook even though it is banned, to promote their fashions.

      Designer Naghmeh Kiumarsi (slideshow of designs to the left) has led the way, converting the classic hijab into chic headcover.  She also transformed the manteau—a long, loose coat—into sassy jackets that would pass as top-line fashion in any European capital. Kiumarsi’s work is unique for its use of traditional Iranian textiles and Persian poetry. Her scarves carry decorative calligraphy and images from some of the most popular Iranian poems.
            “The ideas in my designs come directly from the experiences of my life combined with the courage to express them through the textures and forms,” Kiumarsi said. “’Remember to Fly,’ my latest collection, conveys the positive message that the sky is the limit. If we want to kiss the sky, we should remember to fly and not be afraid.”

      Farnaz Abdoli is the chief designer of Poosh Fashion, one of Iran’s most popular lines (slideshow of designs to the left). Abdoli even created a refreshingly casual look for the chador, an enveloping black cloak that covers the most conservative women’s bodies from head to toe. She replaced it with a shorter poncho in a rich woven textile, matched with red-stripped leggings and a bright scarf that daringly exposes a bit of hair and a woman’s neck.  
 
            Iran’s current extreme makeover is not the first time fashion has been implicit in Iranian politics. The 1979 revolution was partly a reaction to rapid modernization by the short-lived Pahlavi dynasty. Reza Pahlavi, who was shah from 1925 until 1941 when he was forced out for Nazi sympathies, forced Western fashion on women. He banned Islamic dress, arguing that it impeded a woman’s ability to progress. The new law was enforced by soldiers who forcefully removed chadors and veils.
            The revolution was a rejection of Westernization, including its mini-skirts and make-up. Many women then still clung to tradition—at a time that literacy among women was just over 40 percent, according to the World Bank.

      Now, it’s just the reverse, a reflection of the growing dynamism – and education -- among Iran’s women. More than 95 percent of females between 15 and 24 are now literate, over double the number who could read and write in the mid-1970s.
      They accounted for more than 60 percent of all university students until 2012, when ultraconservatives under former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad restricted women from studying 77 subjects--including engineering, education, and counseling—at 36 universities. The subjects were reportedly too “manly.”

            Iran’s women are again pushing back, however. Normally, Kiumarsi explained, women revert to modest wear during religious holidays. But in a reflection of how much is changing, she noted, Tehran designers this summer dared to add in-your-face flash – including studs and leather -- to black chadors during Ramadan, the holiest month in the Muslim world.

 
Maral Noori is a Program Assistant in the Center for Conflict Management at the United States Institute of Peace.
 
Photo Credits: Coralin Design, Naghmeh Kiumarsi, POOSHdesign (Farnaz Abdoli), Apameh Design by Shabnam Rezaei
 
Online news media are welcome to republish original blog postings from this website in full, with a citation and link back to The Iran Primer website (www.iranprimer.com) as the original source. Any edits must be authorized by the author. Permission to reprint excerpts from The Iran Primer book should be directed to permissions@usip.org
 

 

Zarif Outlines New Foreign Policy

            In several interviews and speeches, Iran’s new foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif has offered new insight on how foreign policy would take new directions under President Hassan Rouhani. The following are excerpts from public remarks, translated from Farsi, and an interview in English with Iranian website http://irdiplomacy.ir/en.

Parliamentary Hearing
      “We will not give up even an iota of the Iranian nation’s rights and we will widen the scope of our friendships in the world, while we will be ready to force other actors in the international arena to turn their hostile attitude and behavior into [interactive] relations [with Iran] based on cooperation.
      “In a region which is suffering from extremism, insecurity and instability, Iran is the harbor of stability, security and self-sprung peace without dependence on foreign powers.
      “The approach of moderation in the [Rouhani] administration’s foreign policy will be based on realism, self-belief and self-awareness in order to build mutual understanding and confidence with the purpose of upgrading the country’s capacity as well as its security and development.
            “By creating opportunities and reducing threats, the new administration will expand the circle of friendships across the region and the world… The administration of moderation is prepared to make other players in the international scene reconsider their hostile behavior toward Iran.
            “There have been questions about my communications with some current U.S. officials. Some of these officials were once against the warmongering [U.S.] government. I communicated with them in the framework of my duties. I'm proud if I have been able to create a divide among those pushing for a war.”
         
Interview with Iranian Diplomacy
 
One of the slogans of the government of “prudence and hope” was the issue of moderation. How would you define moderation in the area of foreign policy?
            In my opinion, moderation means realism and the creation of balance between the different needs of the country in the advancement of foreign policy and its goals in the framework of prudent and wise methods and with an appropriate dialogue. Moderation does not mean forgetting the values or leaving the principles aside. Moderation does not mean ignoring the rights of the country either. In other words, as I mentioned in my speech in the Parliament, moderation is rooted in self-belief; a person who believes in his capabilities, power, possibilities, and capacities can take steps on the path of moderation. But an individual who feels weakness and fear will generally pursue radicalism. The radicals of the world are cowards. Despite the fact that their slogans might be different, they have close and good relations with each other. Today, the world needs moderation and the Islamic Republic of Iran, as a powerful country, can advance its foreign policy with moderation.
 
Following his inauguration and in his first press conference, the President stated that one of his major priorities is to restart nuclear negotiations with the P5+1. Do you have any new proposals for this task?
            We have had numerous discussions inside the government with the President with regard to how we should pursue the nuclear rights of the country and remove the oppressive sanctions imposed upon the Islamic Republic of Iran. Our basis for work is insisting on Iran’s rights and removing the logical concerns of the international community. As the Supreme Leader and the President himself have reiterated, this is easy provided that the objective is the resolution of the nuclear issue. We believe that the resolution of the nuclear issue requires political determination, and the election of Dr. Rouhani in the Islamic Republic of Iran, with his record in this dossier, indicates that the people of Iran demand the resolution of the nuclear issue at the appropriate time. We hope that this political determination for the resolution of the nuclear issue also exists on the other side. In that case, we do not have any concerns about reassuring the world of the peacefulness of our nuclear program for, based on the “fatwa” of the Supreme Leader and Iran’s strategic needs, nuclear weapons have no place in our national security and can even disrupt it.
 
There are rumors that the nuclear dossier might be transferred to the Foreign Ministry from the High Council of National Security. Do you confirm such speculations and is there a specific plan to transfer this dossier?
            I have not heard anything about this issue. This is a decision that is within the domain of the President’s authority. Nevertheless, considering my experiences in this case, I will make efforts to help in the advancement of this issue no matter what responsibility I might have. But decisions with regard to how we should pursue the nuclear dossier and the form and framework of negotiations are made at the higher levels of our political system.
 
As the Rouhani administration came to power, we witnessed the formation of anti-Iran movements in both the Congress and the Senate. On the other hand, in their wars of propaganda, the Israelis claim that the government in Iran has changed but the policies are the same as before. How do you intend to deal with such radicalism?
            It seems that the warmongers are concerned about the reduction of problems and are trying their hardest to find an excuse to intensify the crisis. The important point is for the decision-makers in Europe and the US to comprehend the nature and goals of the warmongers well and not allow the agenda of warmongering and tension-building – through oppressive pressures on the Iranian people which have no basis in international law – to prevent the usage of opportunities which can be used to find a solution. The same radical policy shows that the radicals are cowards and are concerned about negotiation and dialogue. Through resorting to hasty and pointless methods, these people close the door on moderation and balance. And cowards usually do not achieve their political objectives.
 
If bilateral talks with the US are proposed on the sidelines of meetings such as the UN General Assembly or P5+1 negotiations, would you accept such a proposal?
            The Supreme Leader has stated his opinion with regard to these negotiations several times. There is no issue with negotiation itself, but the question is what issues will be discussed in these talks and how much of a political determination does exist on the other side to resolve the problems. The issue is whether this political determination will take shape and whether the US administration is ready to stand against the pressure groups and prevent the radicals groups from gaining leadership of this movement. In fact, this issue is a test for the US administration to show its readiness to play a serious role in finding a solution.
 
Do you not consider bilateral talks between Tehran and Washington as the secret prerequisite for the improvement of relations between Iran and Europe?
            I consider political determination as the prerequisite for the improvement of relations. The methods can be evaluated but what is necessary is the formation of this political determination and its practical manifestation. Different methods can then be used to advance our goals. When it is not clear whether this political determination exists or not, the extent of the efficiency of new methods is not clear either. In Iran, the election of Mr. Rouhani shows that the people have decided to have constructive interaction with the world and, through his speeches and choices, Mr. Rouhani has also displayed his political determination to do so. Now, what is important is for the same determination to be formed on the other side.
 
You are taking over the position of foreign minister at a time when the Middle East is going through a critical period. There are different ongoing crises in Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Iraq. What are your priorities on regional issues?
            Due to the mismanagement of certain players, which we have seen especially from outside the region during the past few years, conditions in the region are moving towards chaos and necessitate practical measures by everyone involved to contain the crisis. Fundamentalism, on one hand, and forgetting and ignoring the votes of the people, on the other, and, of course, the very clear intervention of foreign countries, have inflamed the region, the result of which is the killing of thousands of innocent people. Therefore, it is not only necessary for serious measures to be taken to end the crisis in Egypt, but the more serious need of the region and the world is for serious measures to be taken to prevent radicalism through local democratic models. I believe that the Islamic Republic of Iran, particularly after this year’s political epic, can play a significant role in this area.
 
Photo credit: Javad Zarif by Max Talbot-Minkin via Flickr and Wikimedia Commons
 

Youth in Iran Part 2: Parkour Fever

Garrett Nada

            Young Iranians are scaling walls, leaping staircases and flipping over benches. But they’re not running from the police. They’re practicing parkour, a blend of gymnastics, martial arts and plain old obstacle-course athletics. Participants are called traceurs, French for tracers. They have no equipment. They use nothing but their bodies.

      Parkour is attractive in Iran partly because it’s all about freedom and defying traditional limits. Some of Iran’s most daring traceurs are women. They too carve unorthodox paths through parks, allies and even rooftops.
      Now practiced worldwide, parkour is not competitive; it lacks set rules. But mastering the organic discipline requires out-of-the-box thinking. Top traceurs can run full-speed at nearly any obstacle and figure out a way around or over it.
      Iranian traceurs are gaining a reputation on the international circuit from their videos posted on Facebook and YouTube. Many Iranian teams—also called crews or clans—take inspiration from their Western counterparts. It’s one of several unconventional sports that are now creating a bridge across the otherwise deep international political divide.
            The sport was imported from France, where a small group of young men developed the discipline in the 1980s. It was heavily influenced by military obstacle course training, but took on a faster and freer form. Thousands of young Iranians have taken on the challenging discipline since the early 2000s, after Iranian state television broadcast Yamakasi, a French film about parkour’s young founders. The craze is now popular even in remote Iranian villages.

            Amirhossein Imani and his high school friends founded one of the first teams, Rahaa,  in 2003. They promoted parkour through a grassroots group called irPK. Imani visited London in 2004 to train under top parkour teams. Websites like parkour.ir, urbanfreeflow.ir and and forums began popping later that year. And the first parkour magazine was published in 2011.
            By mid-2013, the go-to website Parkour Iran listed nearly 50 rival teams and clans in its directory. Some have their own websites, Facebook pages and YouTube channels. Some include young women, who have taken to free parkour because the government has not adequately invested in women’s athletics.
            “It’s all about speed – unlike the lives of young Iranian women, which sometimes feel like they’re frozen,” a young female traceur told France 24 in mid-2013.
             Female athletes have added obstacles of cumbersome Islamic dress as well as keeping an eye out for authorities. “We fear getting in trouble with the police or basijis [volunteer militiamen], who could accuse us of copying a Western fad,” a 20-year-old university student told France 24. “We could also get in trouble for practicing sports outside designated facilities.”
            One of most noted female teams is Street Bax in Lahijan, a resort town on the Caspian Sea. Their video of girls parkour-ing across trees, walls, sand-dunes and staircases had more than 42,000 hits on Youtube.
 
            Iran’s Ministry of Youth and Sports has occasionally permitted parkour exhibitions as part of breakdance competitions. Some teams have also held independent competitions. Team Rahaa has built indoor parkour courses for several indoor jams.
            Iranian youth have also taken to freerunning, a parkour off-shoot with added flare. Freerunners do flips, spins and dance moves in between obstacles. Sebastien Foucan, one of parkour’s French originators, started the craze. Iranians are now signing up to compete in international competitions.
            Mohammad Rasouli from Tehran submitted the following video to qualify for Red Bull’s 2013 Art of Motion competition. The event, scheduled for September, will bring freerunners from all over the world to Santorini, Greece.
 


Garrett Nada is a Program Assistant in the Center for Conflict Management at the United States Institute of Peace. 

Click here for Youth in Iran Part 1: "The Determinators"

Photo Credit: Rahaa Professional Sports Team

Online news media are welcome to republish original blog postings from this website in full, with a citation and link back to The Iran Primer website (www.iranprimer.com) as the original source. Any edits must be authorized by the author. Permission to reprint excerpts from The Iran Primer book should be directed to permissions@usip.org

 

Report on Iran Talks:New Hope under Rouhani

            President Hassan Rouhani’s electoral victory may signal a change in style and negotiating tactics on Iran’s controversial nuclear program, according to a new International Crisis Group report. Rouhani authored the only previous nuclear agreement between Tehran and the West in the 2000s. And in mid-2013, he repeatedly said that Iran could be more transparent about its nuclear program.
      But the report warns that striking a deal today is more difficult than in the past. Iran has expanded its nuclear program and the West has imposed several rounds of devastating sanctions since Rouhani was chief negotiator. Positions have hardened and trust has deteriorated. “Western doubts about Rouhani’s ability to deliver are matched by Tehran’s skepticism that the U.S. in particular can accept a modus vivendi with the Islamic Republic or that President Barak Obama has the political muscle to lift sanctions,” according to the report. And Tehran’s core demands — recognition of its right to uranium enrichment and sanctions relief—are unlikely to change. The following is the report’s executive summary with a link to the full text at the end.

            In a region that recently has produced virtually nothing but bad news, Hassan Rouhani’s 4 August swearing in as Iran’s president offers a rare and welcome glimmer of hope. There are still far more questions than answers: about the extent of his authority; his views on his country’s nuclear program, with which he long has been associated; and the West’s ability to display requisite flexibility and patience. But, although both sides can be expected to show caution, now is the time to put more ambitious proposals on the table, complement the multilateral talks with a bilateral U.S.-Iranian channel and expand the dialogue to encompass regional security issues.
            Given his blunt criticism of the country’s trajectory, notably on the nuclear file, Rouhani’s election stunned almost all observers, and so one ought to be modest in offering retrospective interpretations of his victory. His promise of change arguably appealed to an electorate that traditionally has seized on presidential contests to try to turn the page; his more conservative rivals were deeply divided and burdened with former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s desultory record; and the leadership’s quest for renewed legitimacy after the hit suffered in the controversial 2009 elections possibly led it to accept the triumph of a strong critic. Too, one could speculate that Rouhani’s success ultimately serves Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s interests, helping both to restore domestic faith in elections, one of the Islamic Republic’s political linchpins, and to reduce international pressure at a time when sanctions are inflicting unprecedented economic pain.
            Questions about how Iran got to this place are overshadowed, however, by speculation regarding where it might go from here. Some, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, see Rouhani as “a wolf in sheep’s clothing”, the gentle façade of a regime whose nuclear ambitions have not changed one iota; others would like to view him as the saviour charged with extricating Iran from its predicament, agreeing to far-reaching nuclear concessions in exchange for commensurate sanctions relief. In this respect as well, a healthy dose of humility is required given the opaqueness of the Islamic Republic’s decision-making.
            Several elements nonetheless can be of utility in seeking to make predictions. The first has to do with the nature of Iranian politics. Presidents are far from all-powerful, having to contend with myriad competing centres of authority and influence, overt and covert, of which the Supreme Leader is only the most obvious. Fundamentals have not changed: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei retains final say; friction between him and the president is all but inevitable; and factionalism will remain both a fact of life and a means of constraining Rouhani. At the same time, presidents are not mere figureheads; witness the differences in style and substance between Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mohammad Khatami and Ahmadinejad.
            Secondly, Rouhani is far from an unknown. He has been a fixture of the Islamic Republic since its beginnings, a consummate insider with a track record and voluminous writings. Those offer some clues regarding his preferred approach. He brought about the first and only nuclear agreement with the West, a significant achievement given the depths of mutual mistrust, yet he also openly justified the accord as allowing Iran to complete its nuclear infrastructure even while negotiating. He has bluntly criticised his successors, yet has focused more on their bluster and reckless negotiating style than on their ultimate goals. His negotiating experience also carries mixed messages: that he feels the West let him down, causing him to suffer bitter criticism at home, may well prompt him to greater caution. In particular, at a time when the U.S. and EU are intent on limiting the extent of Iran’s uranium enrichment program, Rouhani could be more inclined to offer concessions regarding that program’s transparency than its scope.
            That suggests a third point. The change in presidents will usher in important changes in style and negotiating tactics but certainly will not bring about significant changes in Iran’s bottom line demands: recognition of its right to enrich and meaningful sanctions relief. A deal today is thus harder to imagine than when Rouhani last was in charge of the nuclear dossier. Positions have hardened; trust has diminished; the nuclear program has substantially advanced; and sanctions have proliferated. Western doubts about Rouhani’s ability to deliver are matched by Tehran’s scepticism that the U.S. in particular can accept a modus vivendi with the Islamic Republic or that President Barak Obama has the political muscle to lift sanctions.
            Such misgivings are unavoidable but should not be paralysing. Negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany) have become stale; now is as promising a time as is likely to occur to refresh them. This could be achieved in three interlocking ways: altering the substance of a possible deal, combining a confidence-building agreement on Iran’s 20 per cent enrichment with presentation of the contours of a possible nuclear endgame, as Crisis Group has proposed; modifying modalities of the negotiations by complementing multilateral discussions with confidential, bilateral U.S.-Iranian engagement; and expanding the scope of those talks to include regional security matters.
            The promise embodied by Rouhani’s election can grow or quickly fizzle. As he takes office and comes face to face with myriad domestic and foreign challenges, it would be a good idea for the West to encourage him to move in the right direction.
 
Click here for the full report.
 

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