Poll: Economy to Dominate Presidential Race

April 19, 2017

The economy is the most important issue for Iranian voters in the upcoming election, according to a new study by IranPoll.com. Some 42 percent of respondents said unemployment is the number one challenge that the next president should address, followed by youth unemployment and other economic problems. Citizens’ perceptions about the economy are likely to play a critical role in the May 19 presidential election.

RouhaniIncumbent Hassan Rouhani has started to defend his record and highlight the benefits of the nuclear deal, which led to sanctions relief. But a large majority of respondents, 72 percent, said the economy has not improved because of the agreement. Some 42 percent of respondents said President Hassan Rouhani has been somewhat or very successful in resolving Iran’s economic problems. But nearly two thirds of Iranians think their country’s economy is either somewhat or very bad. Although the last four presidents served two consecutive terms, Rouhani’s reelection is not assured. More respondents had favorable views of Tehran mayor Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf than Rouhani, 67 percent compared to 62 percent, respectively. The following are results of the telephone poll conducted between April 11 and April 14, 2017, among a representative sample of 1,005 Iranians with a margin of error of +/-3.09 percent.

 

1. Which of the following best describes your current level of income?

With my current level of income…

April 14

I live very comfortably

4%

I live without any particular issue

5%

I get by

37%

I hardly get by

28%

It is very difficult to get by

26%

 

2. As compared to 4 years ago, has your family’s economic living situation improved, deteriorated, or remained roughly unchanged?

 

April 14

Improved

11%

Deteriorated

35%

Remained unchanged

51%

Don’t Know/Refused [vol]

3%

 

3. How good or bad is the current economic situation of our country?

 

April 14

Very good

3%

Somewhat good

31%

Somewhat bad

35%

Very bad

39%

Don’t Know/Refused [vol]

2%

 

4. Is the economic situation of our country getting better, getting worse, or has remained roughly unchanged?

 

April 14

Getting better

31%

Getting worse

52%

Has remained roughly unchanged

11%

Don’t Know/Refused [vol]

6%

 

5. To what degree President Rouhani has or has not been successful in resolving our country’s economic problems?

 

April 14

Very successful

5%

Somewhat successful

37%

Very unsuccessful

26%

Don’t Know/Refused [vol]

3%

 

6. Do you think the economic situation of ordinary people has or has not improved as a result of the nuclear deal? [If it has, ask: very, somewhat, or only a little]

 

April 14

Has improved – very

7%

Has improved – somewhat

13%

Has improved – only a little

5%

Has not improved

72%

Don’t Know/Refused [vol]

3%

 

7. What is your opinion of:

April 14

Very favorable

Somewhat favorable

Don’t know the individual [vol]

Somewhat unfavorable

Very unfavorable

Hassan Rouhani

23%

39%

3%

16%

19%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

21%

31%

2%

22%

24%

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

19%

48%

8%

13%

12%

Ebrahim Raisi

9%

23%

46%

12%

10%

Hamid Baghayi

4%

12%

56%

10%

18%

Eshaq Jahangiri

3%

26%

48%

15%

8%

 

8. What is the most important issue facing our country that Iran’s next president should try to address? [Open-ended]

 

April 14

Unemployment

42%

Youth unemployment

13%

Various economic problems

11%

High cost of living

8%

Various social issues

5%

The gap between rich and poor

5%

Iran’s relations with other countries

3%

Lack of economic productivity

2%

Issues relating to the nuclear deal

2%

International sanctions

2%

Other

5%

Don’t know/Refused

2%

 

9. Notwithstanding who you will vote for in the upcoming election, which of the following figures do you think can better accomplish these goals if he were to become Iran’s next president?

April 14

Rouhani

Ghalibaf

Raisi

None/Depends [vol]

Don’t know/Refused [vol]

Improve Iran’s foreign relations

55%

22%

6%

4%

13%

Increase civil liberties

52%

20%

6%

7%

15%

Remove int’l sanctions

48%

21%

6%

7%

15%

Fight corruption

36%

27%

17%

8%

12%

Improve the living condition of the poor

32%

28%

16%

14%

10%

Ameliorate Iran’s environmental problems

30%

38%

7%

11%

14%

Reduce unemployment in Iran

27%

33%

9%

17%

14%

 

10. How likely do you think it is that President Rouhani might lose in the upcoming presidential election?

 

April 14

Very likely

14%

Somewhat likely

42%

Somewhat unlikely

15%

Very unlikely

19%

Don’t Know/Refused

10%

 

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