The international community has long been concerned about Iran’s military arsenal. Since the 1979 revolution, the United States and the United Nations have imposed several embargoes on Tehran’s purchase of conventional weapons. The last U.N. embargo on Iran’s purchase of conventional weapons was lifted on October 18, 2020. Ending the embargo had been a key incentive for Iran’s cooperation on unconventional weapons in the 2015 nuclear deal. 

On May 4, Iran’s parliament approved plans to replace the rial, the national currency, by shaving four zeros off the end and renaming the primary bill the toman. Each toman will be worth 10,000 rials. The currency changes include creation of the parseh as a smaller currency. One toman will be worth 100 parsehs. 

The first cases of COVID-19 in five Arab sheikhdoms — Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia—were all traced to travelers from or transiting through Iran, an early epicenter of the pandemic. The United Arab Emirates traced its first case to China. By April 30, the Gulf states reported more than 54,000 total cases, with 298 deaths. Saudi Arabia had the most confirmed cases and deaths.

Already hard hit by U.S. sanctions, Iran faced a stunning decline in the price of oil – a major source of revenue – as an unexpected byproduct of the coronavirus pandemic. By April 1, the price of Iran’s heavy crude fell to below $14 per barrel — down from $44 or more per barrel in February. The trend was worldwide.

Iran’s failure to contain the COVID-19 outbreak at home contributed to spread of the virus in the Arab world. Three countries with close ties to Tehran—Iraq, Syria and Lebanon—were hit hard by the pandemic. The governments of Lebanon and Iraq traced their first known cases of coronavirus directly to Iran. Syria did not identify the origin of its outbreak, but the large number of Iranian militiamen and pilgrims in the country hindered the government’s ability to contain the virus.

On April 14, the research arm of Iran’s parliament estimated that the number of confirmed cases and deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic could be almost twice the official count due to underestimates and poor testing. Iran’s outbreak was already the worst in the Middle East and its death toll the sixth highest in the world. But the revised figures would exceed the number of cases in both United States and China. 

Afghanistan has suffered the spillover of the COVID-19 outbreak in neighboring Iran, with even fewer means of containing its spread.

Iranians are split over prospects of a U.S. military strike if Tehran continues to develop its nuclear program, according to a recent survey by IranPoll and The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Almost three quarters of Iranians think that the United States is unlikely to attack. Only one out of four believe that the United States would strike. If the United States attacks, the majority of respondents said that Iran should respond militarily.

On April 6, the State Department alleged that Iran’s campaign to ease U.S. sanctions “is not intended for the relief or health of the Iranian people but to raise funds for its terror operations.” In a fact sheet, the State Department claimed that Iran had enough funds to adequately respond to the COVID-19 threat. It also reiterated that Iran refused the U.S. offer of assistance extended on February 28. The State Department pushed back on Iran’s claim that sanctions hamper its ability to procure medical supplies.

On April 6, a bipartisan group of two dozen American and European national security leaders urged the U.S. government to ease sanctions on Iran amid the COVID-19 pandemic. “Just because Iran has managed the crisis badly, that does not make its humanitarian needs and our security ones any the less. Targeted sanctions relief would be both morally right and serve the health and security interests of the United States, Europe, and the rest of the world,” the former officials said in a statement organized by the European Leadership Network and The Iran Project.