Iran’s failure to contain the COVID-19 outbreak at home contributed to spread of the virus in the Arab world. Three countries with close ties to Tehran—Iraq, Syria and Lebanon—were hit hard by the pandemic. The governments of Lebanon and Iraq traced their first known cases of coronavirus directly to Iran. Syria did not identify the origin of its outbreak, but the large number of Iranian militiamen and pilgrims in the country hindered the government’s ability to contain the virus. By April 22, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria confirmed hundreds of cases, with additional unconfirmed cases. 

On April 14, the research arm of Iran’s parliament estimated that the number of confirmed cases and deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic could be almost twice the official count due to underestimates and poor testing. Iran’s outbreak was already the worst in the Middle East and its death toll the sixth highest in the world. But the revised figures would exceed the number of cases in both United States and China. 

Afghanistan has suffered the spillover of the COVID-19 outbreak in neighboring Iran, with even fewer means of containing its spread.

Iranians are split over prospects of a U.S. military strike if Tehran continues to develop its nuclear program, according to a recent survey by IranPoll and The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Almost three quarters of Iranians think that the United States is unlikely to attack. Only one out of four believe that the United States would strike. If the United States attacks, the majority of respondents said that Iran should respond militarily.

On April 6, the State Department alleged that Iran’s campaign to ease U.S. sanctions “is not intended for the relief or health of the Iranian people but to raise funds for its terror operations.” In a fact sheet, the State Department claimed that Iran had enough funds to adequately respond to the COVID-19 threat. It also reiterated that Iran refused the U.S. offer of assistance extended on February 28. The State Department pushed back on Iran’s claim that sanctions hamper its ability to procure medical supplies.

On April 6, a bipartisan group of two dozen American and European national security leaders urged the U.S. government to ease sanctions on Iran amid the COVID-19 pandemic. “Just because Iran has managed the crisis badly, that does not make its humanitarian needs and our security ones any the less. Targeted sanctions relief would be both morally right and serve the health and security interests of the United States, Europe, and the rest of the world,” the former officials said in a statement organized by the European Leadership Network and The Iran Project.

Six weeks after the first COVID-19 deaths, President Hassan Rouhani said that Iran was successfully containing the outbreak. “Fortunately, the statistics I read last night from all the provinces shows a downward trend in all provinces,” he said at a cabinet meeting on April 1. Rouhani claimed that Iran’s increasingly stricter travel restrictions and social distancing curbed infections without resorting to a stringent lockdown as seen in Wuhan, China, where the disease originated.

On April 1, President Donald Trump warned that Iran would pay a “very heavy price” if it or one of its proxies attacked U.S. troops or assets in Iraq. In a tweet, he cited a possible “sneak attack” but did not provide further details. The message came after Trump reportedly received a foreign intelligence briefing. Trump repeated his warning. “Don’t do it.

Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif charged the United States with “war crimes” and “economic terrorism” as U.S. sanctions “literally kill innocents” because of Iran’s ability to acquire medical supplies during the COVID-19 crisis. On February 28, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had offered humanitarian aid and medical supplies to Iran to deal with its growing health crisis. But on March 7, Zarif accused the Trump Administration of “maliciously tightening” sanctions to drain Iran’s resources needed to fight the coronavirus.

On March 25, Iran and seven other countries urged U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres to call for the immediate lifting of unilateral sanctions imposed mainly by the United States and the European Union. In a joint letter, the foreign ministers of China, Cuba, North Korea, Iran, Nicaragua, Russia, Syria, and Venezuela said fighting the COVID-19 pandemic was “hard – if not impossible” under the limitations imposed by sanctions. They urged the U.N.