On January 11, a group of student protestors at Amir Kabir University read a powerful statement that condemned Iran’s elite and government. The students were reacting to the downing of the Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752. They mourned the loss of 176 lives, including colleagues and university alumni, but were also enraged at the Revolutionary Guards for mistakenly shooting the plane down and at the government for denying responsibility for three days.

On January 14, Britain, France and Germany urged Iran to reverse its breaches of the 2015 nuclear deal. They triggered the agreement’s dispute resolution mechanism. It was the strongest action yet taken by European powers to enforce the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).  If Iran does not return to compliance, the process could result in the reimposition of U.N. sanctions and ensure that an arms embargo does not expire in October 2020. The parties will have some 60 days to negotiate. 

Iranians launched a new wave of protests on January 11 after Iran admitted that the Revolutionary Guards had mistakenly shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752. All 176 people on board, including dozens of Iranians, were killed. Iranians were enraged at the government’s incompetence and for denying responsibility for three days. “Death to the liars,” people shouted in Tehran.

Trump administration officials initially said Qassem Soleimani, the head of the elite Qods Force, was killed in a U.S. airstrike because he was planning to attack Americans in the Middle East. On January 2, the Pentagon said Soleimani was “actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region,” but did not specify a timeframe. On January 3, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the threat was “imminent.” 

In a new report, Michael Eisenstadt explores Iran’s gray zone strategy of operating between war and peace. The following is the executive summary from the report, available in full here from The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 

Dec. 27: Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia backed by Iran, launched rockets at the K1 military base near Kirkuk, which housed U.S. military service members and Iraqi personnel. The attack killed a U.S. civilian contractor and wounded four U.S. service members and two Iraqis.  

By Andrew Hanna

As of January 2020, the United States possessed an overwhelming advantage in conventional military capabilities in the Persian Gulf – dominating in both air and naval power. But Iran’s unconventional capabilities, along with its array of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, posed a threat to American assets and partner forces. 

On January 4, Iranian newspapers from across the political spectrum devoted their front pages to memorializing Qassem Soleimani. The head of the elite Qods Force was killed early the previous day in a U.S. drone strike on Baghdad International Airport. Newspapers described Soleimani as a national hero and a martyr. They also highlighted pledges of revenge by Iran’s political and military leaders. The following is roundup of front pages and translations by IFP News. 

First Day: January 4, 2020

By Robin Wright

U.S. lawmakers had mixed responses to killing of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s elite Qods Force. The split was largely along party lines. Republicans supported the assassination of the general, whom the United States held responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American servicemembers in the region.