On February 11, hundreds of thousands of Iranians gathered in cities and villages across the country to commemorate the 41st anniversary of the Islamic revolution. The popular uprising, led by the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, culminated in the ouster of Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi, ending millennia of dynastic rule. Each year, Iranians hold mass rallies across the country and the president addresses the nation. This year, rallies were held in more than 5,000 cities, towns and districts, according to state media.

On February 11, Iranian leaders struck a defiant tone on the 41st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. President Hassan Rouhani spoke to a large crowd gathered in Tehran in front of a poster of Qassem Soleimani, the Qods Force commander killed in a U.S. drone strike. Rouhani said that the revolution’s success was “unbearable” for the United States. “For a major power like America it is very hard to endure the Islamic Revolution and victory of a great nation that drove the superpower out of this land,” he said.

Iranian officials dismissed the new U.S. Middle East peace plan presented by President Donald Trump on January 28. They thought the plan heavily favored Israel over the Palestinians. The plan, supported by Israel, called for a two-state solution. But Palestinian and Iranian leaders said the arrangements would not create a viable independent state. 

Iran was one of the original 62 signatories to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the most important global treaty on the world’s deadliest weapon.

On January 11, a group of student protestors at Amir Kabir University read a powerful statement that condemned Iran’s elite and government. The students were reacting to the downing of the Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752. They mourned the loss of 176 lives, including colleagues and university alumni, but were also enraged at the Revolutionary Guards for mistakenly shooting the plane down and at the government for denying responsibility for three days.

On January 14, Britain, France and Germany urged Iran to reverse its breaches of the 2015 nuclear deal. They triggered the agreement’s dispute resolution mechanism. It was the strongest action yet taken by European powers to enforce the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).  If Iran does not return to compliance, the process could result in the reimposition of U.N. sanctions and ensure that an arms embargo does not expire in October 2020. The parties will have some 60 days to negotiate. 

Iranians launched a new wave of protests on January 11 after Iran admitted that the Revolutionary Guards had mistakenly shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752. All 176 people on board, including dozens of Iranians, were killed. Iranians were enraged at the government’s incompetence and for denying responsibility for three days. “Death to the liars,” people shouted in Tehran.

Trump administration officials initially said Qassem Soleimani, the head of the elite Qods Force, was killed in a U.S. airstrike because he was planning to attack Americans in the Middle East. On January 2, the Pentagon said Soleimani was “actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region,” but did not specify a timeframe. On January 3, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the threat was “imminent.” 

In a new report, Michael Eisenstadt explores Iran’s gray zone strategy of operating between war and peace. The following is the executive summary from the report, available in full here from The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 

Dec. 27: Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia backed by Iran, launched rockets at the K1 military base near Kirkuk, which housed U.S. military service members and Iraqi personnel. The attack killed a U.S. civilian contractor and wounded four U.S. service members and two Iraqis.