At around 4:00 a.m. on June 20, Iranian forces shot down a U.S. military drone over or near the Strait of Hormuz. It marked a significant escalation in tensions between Iran and the United States. The countries had conflicting versions of what happened.
The international community had mixed reactions to the attacks on two tankers, which took place in the Gulf of Oman on June 13. Britain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) shared the U.S. assessment that Iran was responsible. “We have done our own intelligence assessment and the phrase we used is almost certain ... We don’t believe anyone else could have done this,” said British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt.
Iran and India have had a complex trade relationship built around oil — dating back to the days of the British Raj — that was abruptly terminated in early 2019 by U.S. sanctions. The trade had literally fueled both countries’ economies, although Iran depended more on India. By 2012, India was the second largest importer of Iranian oil, after China. India bought oil even when Iran was sanctioned between 2006 and 2016.
At least four countries – Iraq, Japan, Oman, and Switzerland – have either served as or offered to be intermediaries between Iran and the United States.
Since the 1979 revolution, Washington and Tehran have gyrated between hostile actions and diplomatic overtures. Relations have never recovered from the seizure of the U.S. Embassy and 52 diplomats. The U.S. attempted military action to end the drama but eventually turned to diplomacy. Since then, the Islamic Republic has been linked, directly or indirectly, to the deaths of hundreds of Americans, while the United States has been responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Iranians.
Tensions in the Persian Gulf escalated after four ships off the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), including two Saudi Arabian oil tankers, were sabotaged on May 12. One ship was due to take a delivery of Saudi oil bound for the United States. “Fortunately, the attack didn't lead to any casualties or oil spill; however, it caused significant damage to the structures of the two vessels,” said Khalid al-Falih, the kingdom’s energy minister.
On May 8, 2018, President Donald Trump announced the United States was withdrawing from the Iran nuclear agreement and “instituting the highest level of economic sanction” against the Islamic Republic. Over the past year, Iranian leaders have tried to undermine that U.S. economic campaign. Two strategies have received the most public attention.
China and Turkey publicly pushed back against the U.S. decision to allow sanctions exemptions on the purchase of Iranian oil lapse on May 2. “China firmly opposes the unilateral sanctions and so-called ‘long-arm jurisdictions’ imposed by the U.S.,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang, adding that China had lodged a formal protest with the United States. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu took to Twitter.
The United States will let sanctions exemptions on the purchase of Iranian oil lapse on May 2. Any company that buys Iranian oil after this deadline could face formidable sanctions penalties from the U.S. Treasury Department.
Amin Saikal is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University. He is the author of Iran Rising: The Survival and Future of the Islamic Republic.
