Alireza Nader's Blog

Part II: Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz?

October 2, 2012
Alireza Nader             Iran’s repeated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are a pivotal part of a military strategy based on psychological and asymmetric warfare. Blocking the strategic waterway, through which 90 percent of Persian Gulf oil flows to the outside world, would have sweeping…

Part I: How Would Iran Fight Back?

October 1, 2012
Alireza Nader             Iran’s response to Israeli or U.S. air strikes is likely to feature unconventional tactics that would not necessarily lead to battlefield successes, such as defeat of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. But its strategy could theoretically achieve an overall political and…

Ties Grow Between Iran and China

May 3, 2012
The following is an excerpt from a new report by Alireza Nader and Scott Harold entitled “China and Iran: Economic, Political, and Military Relations” issued May 3, 2012 by the Rand Corporation. The full link is at the bottom.   The Islamic Republic of Iran’s possible…

Iran’s Calculations in New Diplomatic Talks

April 17, 2012
Alireza Nader What did Iran get out of the talks with the six major powers--U.S., Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany--at the first diplomatic meeting in Istanbul?  Iran apparently took a constructive approach at the first round of talks, according to Western diplomats at the talks.…

Part II: Khamenei: The Nuclear Decision-maker

February 22, 2012
Alireza Nader The fate of Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program—which now threatens yet another Middle East conflagration—rests in the hands of a single man: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.   Iranians are now gripped by a sense that their nation stands at a…

Iran’s Growing State of Civil Disobedience

September 8, 2011
Alireza Nader        The Iranian regime faces a threat even more daunting than the 2009 Green Movement protests: a disparate yet potentially powerful civil disobedience movement motivated not just by politics, but by environmental, economic, and social issues. From demonstrations over the drying…

Ahmadinejad vs. the Revolutionary Guards

July 11, 2011
Alireza Nader        President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in hot water these days. His challenge to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which began after he fired the minister of intelligence in April, has provoked the deepening wrath of Iran’s political and military elite. There is even…

RAND: Iran's Balancing Act in Afghanistan

May 31, 2011
Alireza Nader        The Islamic Republic of Iran continues to provide measured support to Taliban insurgents battling U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan. However, Iran also maintains close and constructive relations with the same Afghan central government that is battling Taliban forces.…

Iran: The Quiet Before the Storm

May 16, 2011
Alireza Nader        The Arab uprisings have dramatically transformed the Middle East. But Iran, a country of pressing concern for the United States, has remained relatively calm. Street protests following the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings quickly fizzled. And the Iranian government has…

Rand Survey: Iran on the U.S., Nukes and the Economy

May 4, 2011
Alireza Nader         The RAND Corporation conducted a phone survey of Iranian public opinion in order to gauge Iranian attitudes on critical issues affecting U.S. interests. Respondents constituted a nationally representative sample of 1,002 members of the Iranian public, age 18 and older, who…