Alireza Nader's Blog
Part II: Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz?
Alireza Nader Iran’s repeated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are a pivotal part of a military strategy based on psychological and asymmetric warfare. Blocking the strategic waterway, through which 90 percent of Persian Gulf oil flows to the outside world, would have sweeping…
Part I: How Would Iran Fight Back?
Alireza Nader Iran’s response to Israeli or U.S. air strikes is likely to feature unconventional tactics that would not necessarily lead to battlefield successes, such as defeat of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. But its strategy could theoretically achieve an overall political and…
Ties Grow Between Iran and China
The following is an excerpt from a new report by Alireza Nader and Scott Harold entitled “China and Iran: Economic, Political, and Military Relations” issued May 3, 2012 by the Rand Corporation. The full link is at the bottom. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s possible…
Iran’s Calculations in New Diplomatic Talks
Alireza Nader What did Iran get out of the talks with the six major powers--U.S., Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany--at the first diplomatic meeting in Istanbul? Iran apparently took a constructive approach at the first round of talks, according to Western diplomats at the talks.…
Part II: Khamenei: The Nuclear Decision-maker
Alireza Nader The fate of Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program—which now threatens yet another Middle East conflagration—rests in the hands of a single man: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranians are now gripped by a sense that their nation stands at a…
Iran’s Growing State of Civil Disobedience
Alireza Nader The Iranian regime faces a threat even more daunting than the 2009 Green Movement protests: a disparate yet potentially powerful civil disobedience movement motivated not just by politics, but by environmental, economic, and social issues. From demonstrations over the drying…
Ahmadinejad vs. the Revolutionary Guards
Alireza Nader President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in hot water these days. His challenge to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which began after he fired the minister of intelligence in April, has provoked the deepening wrath of Iran’s political and military elite. There is even…
RAND: Iran's Balancing Act in Afghanistan
Alireza Nader The Islamic Republic of Iran continues to provide measured support to Taliban insurgents battling U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan. However, Iran also maintains close and constructive relations with the same Afghan central government that is battling Taliban forces.…
Iran: The Quiet Before the Storm
Alireza Nader The Arab uprisings have dramatically transformed the Middle East. But Iran, a country of pressing concern for the United States, has remained relatively calm. Street protests following the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings quickly fizzled. And the Iranian government has…
Rand Survey: Iran on the U.S., Nukes and the Economy
Alireza Nader The RAND Corporation conducted a phone survey of Iranian public opinion in order to gauge Iranian attitudes on critical issues affecting U.S. interests. Respondents constituted a nationally representative sample of 1,002 members of the Iranian public, age 18 and older, who…