Annika Folkeson's Blog
We mean you no harm.
On the contrary, we want to meet, have some coffee and talk about sports.
I'm not afraid of you, I don't hate you.
... I don t even know you. No Iranian ever did me no harm. I never even met an Iranian…Just one in Paris in a museum. Nice dude.
I'm sure he does not represent all the people of Iran.
If you see someone on your TV talking about bombing you …be sure he does not represent all of us.
“Therefore we have always been saying that they (should) not be present in this waterway.”
Tension has increased between Iran and the United States over the past weeks after the United States imposed new sanctions and Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. The following are key facts on Iranian oil.
- Iran holds the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves and the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves. International sanctions and unfavorable investment terms, however, have impeded developments across the energy sector.
- Iran is OPEC’s second-largest oil producer and the third-largest crude oil exporter in the world.
- Iran has an estimated 137 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, 9.3 percent of the world's total reserves and over 12 percent of OPEC reserves.
- Saudi Arabia, which has been producing about 10 million barrels per day, has an overall production capacity of over 12 million barrels per day and is widely seen as the only OPEC member with sufficient spare capacity to offset major shortages.
- But Iran — the world’s fourth largest producer — pumps about 4 million barrels per day, suggesting that other Gulf states would also have to up their output to offset the decline.
- Iran relies on crude sales for about 65 percent of its of its public revenues, and sanctions or even a pre-emptive measure by Tehran to withhold its crude from the market would batter its already flailing economy.
- China, which bought 11 percent of its oil from Iran during the first 11 months of last year, has cut its January purchase by about 285,000 barrels per day, more than half of the close to 550,000 bpd that it bought through a 2011 contract.
- China, Japan, India and South Korea together import more than 60 percent of Iranian oil exports.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Tension has increased between Iran and the United States over the past weeks after the United States imposed new sanctions and Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. The following are key facts on the Strait.
- The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important chokepoint with an oil flow of almost 17 million barrels per day in 2011, up from between 15.5-16.0 million bbl/d in 2009-2010.
- Flows through the Strait in 2011 were roughly 35 percent of all seaborne traded oil, or almost 20 percent of oil traded worldwide.
- On average, 14 crude oil tankers per day passed through the Strait in 2011, with a corresponding amount of empty tankers entering to pick up new cargos. More than 85 percent of these crude oil exports went to Asian markets, with Japan, India, South Korea, and China representing the largest destinations.
- About three-quarters of Japan's oil imports and about 50 percent of China's pass through this strait.
- At its narrowest point, the Strait is 21 miles wide, but the width of the shipping lane in either direction is only two miles, separated by a two-mile buffer zone. The Strait is deep and wide enough to handle the world's largest crude oil tankers, with about two-thirds of oil shipments carried by tankers in excess of 150,000 deadweight tons.
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would require the use of longer alternate routes at increased transportation costs.
- Alternate routes include the 745 mile long Petroline, also known as the East-West Pipeline, across Saudi Arabia from Abqaiq to the Red Sea. The East-West Pipeline has a nameplate capacity of about 5 million bbl/d. The Abqaiq-Yanbu natural gas liquids pipeline, which runs parallel to the Petroline to the Red Sea, has a 290,000-bbl/d capacity.
- Additional oil could also be pumped north via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline to the port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea, but volumes have been limited by the closure of the Strategic pipeline linking north and south Iraq.
- The United Arab Emirates is also completing the 1.5 million bbl/d Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline pipeline that will cross the emirate of Abu Dhabi and end at the port of Fujairah just south of the Strait. Other alternate routes could include the deactivated 1.65-million bbl/d Iraqi Pipeline across Saudi Arabia (IPSA), and the deactivated 0.5 million-bbl/d Tapline to Lebanon.
- The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet consists of 20-plus ships supported by combat aircraft, with 15,000 people afloat and another 1,000 ashore.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
The Islamists Are Coming
The Islamists Are Coming, edited by Robin Wright, surveys the rise of Islamist groups in the wake of the Arab Spring. Often lumped together, the more than 50 Islamist parties with millions of followers now constitute a whole new spectrum—separate from either militants or secular parties. They will shape the new order in the world’s most volatile region more than any other political bloc. Yet they have diverse goals and different constituencies. Sometimes they are even rivals.
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