On Jan. 19, 2021, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines reiterated President Biden’s pledge to reenter the 2015 nuclear deal but only if Iran first rolls back its violations of the agreement. “Frankly, we're a long ways from that,” she told the Senate Intelligence Committee during her confirmation hearing. In 2019, Iran began breaching its obligations in tit-for-tat responses to the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the deal in 2018 and the “maximum pressure campaign” that included hundreds of punitive economic sanctions. Iran should never “be allowed to get a nuclear weapon,” Haines told the committee. She added that the Biden administration should address Iran’s ballistic missiles and destabilizing activities in the Middle East in any future diplomacy with Iran. Haines was confirmed by a vote of 84 to 10 on January 20. The following are excerpts from her confirmation hearing and after she took office.
Excerpts from her 2021 confirmation hearing:
On Iran’s nuclear program and future diplomacy
Senator Susan Collins (R-ME): “President-elect Biden has indicated his intention to rejoin the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action]. I would like to know whether you have any reservations about your strong support for the agreement and how the threat of the Iranians developing nuclear weapons fits in with your priorities?”
Haines: “Obviously, the president-elect has indicated that if Iran were to come back into compliance, that he would direct that we do so as well. And I think, frankly, we're a long ways from that. And I think there's going to be an opportunity to consult with Congress and with members like yourself on these issues as we look at that. But he's the president-elect has also indicated, and I agree with this, that in doing so, we have to also look at the ballistic missile issues that you've identified. And there are other obviously destabilizing activities that Iran engages in.
“If I am confirmed to be the director of national intelligence, my hope in my role, I think, would be to provide all of you with the best possible information about the status, for example, of Iran's program, about their activities, give you information that would allow you to make the best judgment under the circumstances for what is the appropriate act to be taken.”
Senator John Cornyn (R-TX): “I know you support the reentry of the United States into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Do you believe Iran should ever be allowed to get nuclear weapons?”
Haines: “No, sir. I don't believe that Iran should ever be allowed to get a nuclear weapon.”
On Iran’s destabilizing activities in the Middle East
Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA): “How will you approach the threat from Iran, especially in the wake of the killings of the IRGC commander [Gen. Qassem] Soleimani a year ago and the founder of Iran's nuclear program this year [Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was killed in November 2020]?”
Haines: “I absolutely agree that Iran is a threat and a destabilizing actor in the region. And I think this is an issue that we need to focus in on. From the intelligence community perspective, if I'm confirmed, what I would hope to do is provide the best, most accurate intelligence that we have on the threat being posed and allow policymakers, therefore, to have that information as they make decisions about what actions to pursue with respect to Iran in the future.”
Remarks since taking office:
Iran's nuclear program
May 2, 2024 to the Senated Committee on Armed Services:
Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT): “On Iran, I am somewhat perplexed about what you say in your report. Iran is currently not undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device. But then you say Iran continues to increase the size and enrichment level of its uranium stockpile and so forth. Isn't Iran continuing to take steps that would put it in a position to have nuclear arms?”
Haines: “Yeah, I think we can probably talk about this more in closed session, but I think the distinction that's been made and the report in that particular scenario is basically to say that what they're doing is shortening the time period that it would take for them to actually, for example, enrich a sufficient amount of material for a nuclear weapon if they make a decision to move forward on it, as opposed to actually having made a decision to move forward on it.”
Iran's destabilizing activities in the Middle East
May 2, 2024 to the Senated Committee on Armed Services:
Senator Ted Budd (R-NC): “Director Haines, the Annual Threat Assessment states that the intelligence committee assesses that and a quote from there is that Iranian leaders did not orchestrate nor had foreknowledge of the Hamas attack against Israel. So how confident are you about that assessment, and to the extent that you can discuss it here, how has October 7 impacted the relationships and operations of the broader Iranian threat network?”
Haines: “We're reasonably confident and growing more confident over time that that assessment is correct with respect to their foreknowledge of the attack. And then in terms of the relationship, impact that it's had, as you indicate, I think, it has certainly increased the degree of work that has been done between, for example, Iran and the Houthis. That was obviously a long-standing relationship, but that one continues to build and the Houthis are increasingly relying on Iran for assistance in their capacity and for weapons systems and so on and to make them more precise in many respects. It is certainly continued. I mean, I think the relationship with the Iranian-aligned militia groups as we often refer to them within the region, these are classically Shia militia groups that have been working with Iran that get money, training weapons systems and so on from them. And we continue to see that relationship. I don't know that it's had an enormous impact on the relationship since October 7, but it has been one that's been quite active obviously, during this period, and they've been assisting in the sort of strategy that Iran has taken with respect to the conflict in the region during this period. I would say that the relationship remains strong between Iran and Hezbollah. That continues to be a key partner from their perspective and one that they rely on to manage security in the region in many respects, from their perspective.”
Senator Budd: “Since October 7, Iran has encouraged and enabled its proxies to conduct strikes against Israel, and then also U.S. interests. In fact, we saw more than 100 attacks against U.S. forces in the Middle East, including the killing of three American soldiers. Those attacks dissipated, but they seem to have started again. Director, what is the IC’s assessment of whether the Iran threat network will resume attacks against U.S. forces or is some level of deterrence been established?”
Haines: “Currently, they continue to sort of be in this pause. The question of how long it will last is, you know, unknown to us, but here are some of the factors that I think are relevant to it. One is the Iranians have really been focused on pressuring the Iranian threat network as you call it, the Iranian-aligned militia groups, on Israel, as you pointed out. That is sort of their primary instruction in many respects, and in what has really, in part, been driving the Iranian militia groups in this scenario, particularly the Iraqi groups, has been also to drive U.S. forces out of the region and coalition forces out of the region, but particularly U.S. forces. And and so how the talks with the high military commission go, how the conversation goes in Iraq, and how much [Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al] Sudani is able to manage that… that it will make a difference to essentially the calculus of those groups and whether or not they initiate continue attacks is sort of where we are on this, but we'll continue to watch that. And we do think, obviously, that the pause reflects a certain amount of deterrence that's been established during this period. But again, these factors can adjust that, and it's possible for it to start anytime as a consequence of that discussion.”
On Iran's use of cryptocurrency
May 2, 2024 to the Senated Committee on Armed Services: “There's no question that Iran permits the use of cryptocurrencies right in smart contracts to pay for imported goods because it lacks access to the U.S. dollar and that's a consequence of the sanctions regimes that are in place. What is also true though, and I think is just to frame it, doesn't mean that this isn't a problem, but its use is relatively limited as compared to other transaction pieces. So it's not been as much of a major factor in our judgment as it might otherwise seem. So in other words we've got in early August 2022, the country made its first official cryptocurrency payment for imports, which were worth 10 million out of a total of 102 billion for imports. So it's just it's a, it's sort of a similar challenge in the context of Russia as well, where we see them using cryptocurrency. And I think it is almost certainly going to expand in different ways. But there are some kind of structural limitations on their capacity.”