Nuclear arms would be unlikely to change Iran’s fundamental interests and strategy in the Middle East, according to a new report by the Rand Corporation’s Alireza Nader. Tehran is primarily concerned with survival. So it probably would not attack Israel or U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf if it were to attain nuclear weapons, according to the report. The Islamic Republic would not likely use them against its Muslim neighbors either. Iran “does not seek to invade, conquer, or occupy other nations,” argues Nader. The following are excerpts, with a link to the full text at the end.
be the American-dominated order in the Middle East. However, it does not have
territorial ambitions and does not seek to invade, conquer, or occupy other nations.
including deterring a U.S. or Israeli attack.
view of its diminishing influence and deteriorating economy; it is unlikely to use them
against Israel given Israel's overwhelming military superiority.
support for terrorism is motivated by cost and benefit calculations, with the aims of
maintaining deterrence and preserving or expanding its influence in the Middle East.
An inadvertent or accidental nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran is a dangerous
possibility. However, there is not much evidence to suggest that rogue elements could
have easy access to Iranian nuclear weapons, even if the Islamic Republic were to
Mahdists or millenarians, but their beliefs are not directly related to nuclear weapons
and will not shape Iran's nuclear decision making.