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Latest on the Race: Rafsanjani Redux?

By Robin Wright and Garrett Nada

            Among the 680-plus candidates who registered to run for president of Iran, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani stands alone as the most experienced and savviest politico — by far. He has almost done it all.

      He was speaker of parliament for nine terms in the 1980s. He was president for two terms from 1989 to 1997. He was chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a panel of more than 80 clerics and scholars who oversee the supreme leader, from 2007 to 2011. And he is currently chief of the Expediency Council, the ultimate arbiter of disputes between parliament and the 12-man Guardian Council.
      But more than titles, Rafsanjani was long the behind-the-scene powerbroker in the world’s only modern theocracy. He orchestrated the rewriting of the constitution in 1989 to create an executive president — and then got himself elected to the more powerful post. The same year, he mobilized the inner circle after the death of revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini to support Ali Khamenei as the new supreme leader. The twin steps are still the biggest political overhaul since the 1979 revolution.
      For his wiliness, Rafsanjani was nicknamed “the shark,” which is also a play on his smooth beardless chin, a physical attribute inherited from Mongolian ancestors. He was also — somewhat cynically — nicknamed “Akbar Shah,” a dig at the king-like power he once wielded. His Cheshire cat grin was a staple of Iranian politics in the 1980s and 1990s — and a barometer of who and what was in favor.
            Yet Rafsanjani has struggled since 2000 to retain his leverage. Subsequent comeback efforts have failed.
            His famous family has also increasingly been targeted by both the regime and his political rivals. Two of his children were charged with acting against the regime after the disputed 2009 presidential election. His daughter Faezeh Hashemi ― a former member of parliament and vice president of Iran’s Olympic committee ― spent six months in prison for “spreading propaganda.” She was released in March 2013. His son, Mehdi Hashemi was jailed for more than two months in late 2012 for inciting unrest and still faces formal prosecution.  

What support does Rafsanjani have among the general population today?
            After two decades of dominating political power, Rafsanjani suffered serious setbacks in his last two campaigns for parliament in 2000 and the presidency in 2005. Although considered a pragmatist in the 1980s and early 1990s, a new generation of reformists began turning elsewhere in the late 1990s. Disillusionment deepened after his statements following the brutal government crackdown on protests in 1999, when university students rallied against the closing of a reformist newspaper and new limits on freedom of expression. In a sermon, Rafsanjani condoned the use of force to stop “enemies of the revolution.”
            In the 2000 election, Rafsanjani failed to win enough votes for any of the 30 parliamentary seats allocated to Tehran — a stunning development. A recount later claimed that he came in 29th, although he opted not to take the seat.
            Rafsanjani attempted another comeback in a run for the presidency in 2005. His inventive campaign had young girls on rollerblades pass out “Hashemi 2005” bumper stickers. The campaign set up tents in Tehran and blared Western-style music ― a controversial move in a country that had banned broadcast music after the 1979 revolution. Rafsanjani faced Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the working-class mayor of Tehran, in a runoff election. Ahmadinejad routed Rafsanjani with about 62 percent of the vote.  
           
How is Rafsanjani perceived among Iran’s political elite?
      Key members of the reformist elite supported Rafsanjani’s 2013 presidential bid. Former President Mohammad Khatami (left) called Rafsanjani the “most appropriate figure” for easing economic challenges and international pressures. “Now it is the people's turn to enter the scene with bravery and responsibility and assist him,” Khatami said.
      But hardliners countered by painting Rafsanjani as part of a “deviant camp.” They claimed that he helped incite mass demonstrations—the largest since the revolution—after the disputed 2009 presidential election. Rafsanjani’s critics demanded that he condemn Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, leaders of the opposition Green Movement who both ran for president in 2009.
            In May 2013, some 100 hardline members of parliament reportedly sent a petition to the 12-man Guardian Council urging it to disqualify Rafsanjani for having a major role “in managing the sedition” after the 2009 election. Before the election, hardliners had also considered a new law prohibiting candidates over the age of 75. The idea was widely believed to be an attempt to prevent Rafsanjani, then 78, from running. But the Guardian Council rejected the bill.
 
What is Rafsanjani’s record on domestic policy?
      In the 1980s and 1990s, Rafsanjani was considered pragmatic on both domestic and foreign affairs. After the eight-year war with Iraq, he moved to jumpstart the war-ravaged economy. He pushed a free-market agenda after he became president in 1989. He reopened the stock market launched during the monarchy and encouraged foreign investment with new incentives. He cut a few subsidies and started privatizing state-run businesses.
      But conservative opponents in parliament balked at his plans for economic shock therapy. And excessive spending depleted foreign exchange reserves, forcing Iran into debt. When he ran for reelection in 1993, the public also seemed less enthusiastic, as his support at the polls dropped significantly. Inflation soared in 1994, and the economy went into a recession. Iran’s Chamber of Commerce acknowledged that up to 40 percent of Iranians lived below the poverty line in 1996.
            Rafsanjani initially succeeded in easing social restrictions and cultural censorship. Women began wearing brightly colored headscarves instead of the full-body and typically black chador. His minister of culture, Mohammad Khatami, was credited with allowing revival of Iranian music and cinema. But hardliners in parliament forced Khatami from office in 1992. Rafsanjani also found it increasingly difficult to enact reforms as Supreme Leader Khamenei and his conservative allies consolidated power in the mid-1990s.
 
What is Rafsanjani’s record on foreign policy?
            In the mid-1980s, Rafsanjani reportedly played a key role in the arms-for-hostage scandal, which involved acquiring American weapons in exchange for release of American hostages held in Lebanon. He was widely viewed as the leading advocate of repairing relations with the United States to end Iran’s isolation. Even after the scandal was revealed, he reportedly dispatched a nephew to Washington to probe the potential of reviving behind-the-scenes talks.
            In 1988, Rafsanjani also played a key role in convincing Ayatollah Khomeini to end the war with Iraq, in which more than 120,000 Iranians died. Afterwards, he again sought to end Iran’s diplomatic isolation. But he made little progress, partly because of Ayatollah Khomeini’s 1989 fatwa calling for the death of British author Salman Rushdie for his book “The Satanic Verses.” Tehran also continued to support Hezbollah, a radical Lebanese Shiite militia, and opposed the Arab-Israeli peace process. But Rafsanjani did improve relations with China, Saudi Arabia and Russia.
            Toward the end of his presidency in the mid-1990s, Rafsanjani reportedly orchestrated the offer of a $1 billion contract to U.S. oil company Conoco to develop Iran’s offshore fields. The move was widely interpreted as an indirect overture to the United States through commercial channels. Under congressional pressure, however, President Clinton issued an executive order in March 1995 that prohibited U.S. trade in or development of Iranian oil.

What is Rafsanjani’s relationship with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei?
      Rafsanjani and Khamenei both were active against the monarchy. Both spent time in the shah’s jail. And both were close disciples of late revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini. (The three clerics are pictured on the left in the 1980s). Rafsanjani was instrumental in promoting Khamenei to the position of supreme leader in 1989.
      But Rafsanjani’s relationship with Khamenei soured in the 1990s as the two men jockeyed for control of the Islamic Republic. As the new supreme leader, Khamenei reportedly disapproved of Rafsanjani’s efforts to improve relations with the West, move towards a free-market economy, and loosen social restrictions.  Rafsanjani also then had wider popular support.
            Khamenei gradually got the upper hand after Rafsanjani had to step down from the presidency in 1997, as the constitution only allows two sequential terms. Rafsanjani’s attempts at a political comeback in 2000 and 2005 then failed.
            After the controversial 2009 presidential election, the regime also revoked Rafsanjani’s title as Friday prayer leader when he gave a sermon criticizing the government crackdown on protestors. Rafsanjani then lost his post as head of the Assembly of Experts in 2011. Ayatollah Mohammad-Reza Mahdavi Kani, an elderly conservative cleric who reportedly had Khamenei’s backing, took his place. Rafsanjani chose not to contest the election.  
             His third attempt at a comeback in 2013 surprised even astute political analysts in Iran. Rafsanjani had initially said that he would not run for president without the supreme leader’s permission. He reportedly informed the supreme leader of his interest shortly before registering—also in the final minutes of the five-day process. He did not indicate whether or not he won Khamenei’s approval.
 
What positions has Rafsanjani taken on Iran’s most critical domestic and foreign policy issues, such as negotiations over the nuclear program?
            Rafsanjani is generally running on his past record. His official campaign website says Iran needs a “captain,” not an “inexperienced boatman” to lead Iran. He has also compared Iran’s problems in 2013 to the challenges it faced during post-war reconstruction in the 1990s.
            On the economy, Rafsanjani has called for further privatization of Iran’s large state-run sector. He has also criticized the government’s reliance on oil revenues and neglect of the manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Rafsanjani has favored subsidy reform but has emphasized the importance of reinvesting government savings.
            On the controversial nuclear program, Rafsanjani has supported negotiations with the West and the international community. He has also been a staunch defender of Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear technology, including uranium enrichment capabilities. Rafsanjani has said that Tehran does not want nuclear arms.   
            In the past, Rafsanjani advocated rapprochement with the United States and the West. Iran would negotiate with the United States if it showed “goodwill,” Rafsanjani told USA Today in 2005. In comments posted on his 2013 campaign website, he said, “We shouldn’t be afraid of interaction with the world.” At the same time, he has warned against giving into the demands of “bullying and domineering powers.”
            Rafsanjani has also supported opening up Iranian society. He has called for greater media freedom and the release of detained journalists. “We should open the doors to debates,” Rafsanjani said in a July 2009 sermon after the presidential election. He has even reportedly described Facebook and other social media as a “blessing” that helps “movements against tyranny and oppression.”
            Rafsanjani has publicly opposed harsh implementation of Iran’s penal code, which is based on a strict interpretation of Islamic law. “We should live based on Islamic laws and not based on radical individuals' interpretations which sometimes make people's lives difficult,” Rafsanjani told journalists in May 2005.  But he was also in power during periods when the international community criticized Iran for support of extremist movements and ruthless internal repression.
 
What is his background?
      Rafsanjani was born in 1934 in Bahraman village near the south-central city of Rafsanjan, the district from which he gets his name. His father was a well-to-do pistachio farmer. Rafsanjani left home at age 14 to study Islamic jurisprudence in the holy city of Qom, where he developed a close relationship with Ayatollah Khomeini. In 1958, Rafsanjani married Effat Marashi, the daughter of a respected cleric. They have five children: Fatemeh, Mohsen, Faezeh, Mehdi and Yasser.
      Rafsanjani joined the struggle against the Pahlavi dynasty in the late 1950s. He was detained seven times and imprisoned for a total of four years spread out between from 1958 to 1979, according to his bio.
 
     Rafsanjani was a top adviser to Khomeini throughout the revolution. He was elected speaker of Iran’s first post-revolution parliament in 1980 and held the position for nine years.
      Khomeini appointed Rafsanjani to be his personal representative on the Supreme Defense Council during the 1980-1988 war with Iraq. He also briefly served as acting commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
      But he also has enemies. In May 1979, he narrowly escaped assassination by members of the leftist Islamic group, Forqan.
            Rafsanjani and his family have reportedly amassed significant wealth since the revolution. In 2003, Forbes named him as one of the “millionaire mullahs.” Critics have accused Rafsanjani and his sons of corruption. His youngest son Yasser, a businessman educated in Belgium, has run a successful export-import firm. Rafsanjani’s middle son, Mehdi, has done well financially through connections to the oil industry. He used to head a subsidiary of the National Iranian Oil Company. Rafsanjani’s oldest son Mohsen headed Tehran’s metro until he resigned in 2011.
 
Links to Rafsanjani’s official website and Twitter account.
 
Robin Wright is a distinguished scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. She edited The Iran Primer. See her chapter, “The Challenge of Iran.”
 
Garrett Nada is a Program Assistant at USIP in the Center for Conflict Management.
 
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Iran Wins Tug-of-War with U.S.

Robin Wright

Iran has jockeyed to regain international legitimacy and political leverage while hosting some 100 delegations at the Non-Aligned Movement in Tehran. The Islamic Republic won a diplomatic tug-of-war with the United States when U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon agreed to attend over Washington’s repeated objections.
 
Heads of state from some 50 countries showed up for the Aug 26-31 meeting, according to the Foreign Ministry. Among them was new Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, the first visit by an Egyptian head of state since the 1979 revolution. Morsi is a former member of the Muslim Brotherhood. But Iran did not invite Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist movement it has long supported. President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority led the delegation, even though Hamas effectively rules Gaza.
 
Senior political and military Iran officials have capitalized on the summit to boost Tehran’s image—at American expense. “Electing Iran as leader of the Nonaligned Movement shows that a global resistance against America and the Zionists has taken shape,” Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Naghdi, who commands the paramilitary Basij, told the Fars news agency. “America better give up, as this is yet another sign of its collapse.”
 
The State Department charged that Iran was abusing its position as host to press its own agenda. “We had concerns that Iran is going to manipulate this opportunity and the attendees, to try to deflect attention from its own failings…This is a country that is in violation of all kinds of U.N. obligations and has been a destabilizing force,” Spokesperson Victoria Nuland told reporters at a State Department briefing on Aug. 22.
 
“We hope that those who have chosen to attend, including U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, will make very strong points to those Iranians that they meet about their international obligations, about the opportunity that we’ve provided through the P-5+1 talks for them to begin to come clean on their nuclear program and to solve this particular issue diplomatically, and about all the other expectations that we all have of them.”
 
But Iran instead used the summit to portray itself as the victim of terrorism. The bombed-out shells of cars carrying three nuclear physicists, who were assassinated in daring roadside motorcycle attacks, were mounted on display outside the Tehran Convention Center. Iran charges that Israel was responsible.
 
During the opening day, Tehran appealed for NAM—an organization of 120 developing countries and 17 observer groups created in 1961—to help end economic sanctions imposed because of Iran’s non-compliance with U.N. resolutions. “The non-aligned [movement] must seriously oppose…unilateral economic sanctions which have been enacted by certain countries against non-aligned countries,” Foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi said in an Aug. 26 speech.
 
Even Iranian religious leaders have preached about the international conference. “The summit is a milestone and a clear and practical response [to the United States] and shows that the global arrogance is holding just a rusty gun in its hand and its mottos are empty and its claims are baseless,” Hojatoleslam Kazzem Sediqi told worshippers at Tehran University on Aug. 24.
 
The Non-Aligned Movement has often taken bold positions challenging the world’s major political and economic powers, although it has limited means of impacting their decisions. It has the largest membership outside the United Nations, however.  
 
Robin Wright, who has visited Iran regularly since 1973, is a joint fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
 
 

Growing World Pressure Over Iran’s Human Rights Record

Robin Wright
 
          The U.N. decision to appoint an investigator to track Iran’s human rights violations is the latest move by the international community to increase pressure on Tehran. The resolution follows a report by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in which he said he was “deeply troubled by reports of increased executions, amputations, arbitrary arrest and detention, unfair trials, and possible torture and ill-treatment of human rights activists, lawyers, journalists and opposition activists.”
 
           The move also reflects the growing U.N. and U.S. focus on human rights abuses, expanding world attention beyond the standoff over Iran’s controversial nuclear program, which has shaped most U.N. actions since 2006. The resolution notes the Islamic Republic’s refusal to cooperate on human rights issues and calls on Tehran to allow the investigator to have full and open access during visits.
 
            The decision was taken by the U.N. Human Rights Council, which is based in Geneva, on March 24. The initiative was co-sponsored by the United States and Sweden. The proposal passed 22 to 7, with 14 nations abstaining. The appointment of an official rapporteur is expected in May or June.
 
            Iranian officials reacted swiftly and angrily to the U.N. council’s decision, while Western officials have welcomed the vote as a means of holding the Islamic Republic accountable for its actions.
 
Iran
 
Ramin Mehmanparast, Foreign Ministry spokesman
            "The passage of the anti-Iranian resolution at the U.N. Human Rights Council cannot be justified. It is politically motivated…The objective behind this resolution was to... divert attention from human rights abuses in the West, specifically in the United States…U.S. policies both in deeds and words have always been paradoxical and predicated on double standards." March 25, 2011
 
Hassan Norouzi, member of parliament
            “By issuing this resolution, those who claim [to be the advocates of] human rights want to deflect world public opinion from the crimes committed in Libya, Bahrain and other Islamic countries.” March 26, 2011
 
Seyyed Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi, U.N. Ambassador
            "U.S. soldiers kill civilians in Afghanistan and take memorial photos [over] their corpses…"[The United States has] secret detention centers in various parts of the world and humiliating and torturing detainees…The Islamic Republic of Iran has always manifested its sincere commitment to the promotion of human rights at the national and international levels."
 
Sa'dollah Nassiri Qeidari, member of parliament
            “Given the situation in the region and the awakening of the people of Islamic countries, hegemonic powers such as the U.S., Britain and France are trying to use such political and biased resolutions to tarnish the image of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” March 26, 2011
 
Western officials
 
Hillary Rodham Clinton, Secretary of State
            This is the first new country mandate established since the Human Rights Council was formed in 2006…Independent investigation and reporting by the Special Rapporteur will help the international community responsibly address the serious human rights abuses in Iran. It will also give voice to the many Iranians who long not only for reform, but for their government to respect their most basic of human rights and freedoms. March 24, 2011
 
 Tom Donilon, National Security Advisor
            The decision by the Council represents a historic milestone that reaffirms the global consensus and alarm about the dismal state of human rights in Iran. Iranian authorities are perpetrating a wide variety of abuses against a broad spectrum of Iranians, irrespective of age, gender, faith, or profession…The Iranian Government has a responsibility to protect its citizens and allow its people’s voices to be heard.  The United States will continue to speak out on behalf of all those brave Iranians struggling for their universal rights. March 24, 2011
 
William Hague, Britain's Foreign Secretary
            "[There has been an] an unacceptable deterioration [in human rights in Iran. The new U.N. investigator could] provide encouragement to the many Iranians who bravely continue to speak up for their rights and the rights of others…[Since the 2009 elections, Iranian authorities] have systematically sought to silence all dissenting voices, through detaining and harassing human rights activists, lawyers, journalists and most recently opposition leaders [Mir Hossein] Mousavi and [Mehdi] Karroubi." March 24, 2011 
 
 
Robin Wright, who has visited Iran regularly since 1973, is a joint fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
 

New U.S. Sanctions on Iran for human rights abuses

Robin Wright

      The United States imposed new sanctions on two top Iranian officials for engaging in “serious human rights abuses” since the disputed 2009 election. In a striking run of statements on February 23, the White House, State Department and Treasury Department issued three separate condemnations about Iranian government behavior against its citizens. Together, the three statements represented some of the toughest language from Washington since the election that resulted in a second term for hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
 
      The latest move also reflects the growing momentum behind the Obama administration’s human rights posture throughout the Middle East. “The historic events unfolding in the Middle East underscore the importance of protecting human rights around the world, which all nations have a responsibility to uphold,” the White House said in a statement following announcement of new sanctions. 
 
“As President Obama has said, human rights are a matter of moral and pragmatic necessity for the United States.  The people of Iran should be able to express their opinions and their grievances without fear of reprisal from their government.  The United States reaffirms its support to all those in Iran and around the world who are struggling to have their voices heard and rights respected.  We continue to call upon the Iranian government to respect the rights of its people and we will continue to hold accountable those who infringe upon those universal rights.
 
      The Treasury Department specifically named prosecutor general Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi and Basij commander Mohammed Reza Naqdi. The Basij are a paramilitary force used for both domestic and national security issues. Its members beat back protesters after the 2009 election and tens of thousands volunteered to fight during the 1980-1988 war with Iraq.
 
      “Today's action underscores our enduring commitment to support Iranians seeking to exercise their universal rights and expresses our solidarity with victims of torture, persecution, and arbitrary detention,” said State Department Assistant Secretary for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor Michael Posner in a statement from the Treasury Department outlining the new punitive measures.
 
       In its statement, the White House said that both men will be subject to financial sanctions and visa ineligibilities under U.S. law.  It also noted that the names are “not exhaustive and will continue to grow” as events unfold in Iran and additional information becomes available. 
 
      The new sanctions are based on a White House executive order signed in September 2010. The Treasury Department identified the role of the two key officials:
 
Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi : Appointed Tehran Prosecutor General in August 2009.  His office has indicted a large number of protesters and  charged many with Muharebeh, or enmity against God, which carries a death sentence. His office has also targeted and arrested reformists, human rights activists, and members of the media, as part of a broad crackdown on the political opposition.
 
 
Mohammed Reza Naqdi: Appointed Basij commander in October 2009. As commander of the IRGC’s Basij Forces, Naqdi was responsible for or complicit in Basij abuses occurring in late 2009, including the violent response to the December 2009 Ashura Day protests, which resulted in up to 15 deaths and the arrests of hundreds of protesters. Naqdi had headed the Basij intelligence unit responsible for interrogating detainees during the post-election crackdown and was in charge of an interrogation team at the Kahrizak detention center. At least three demonstrators are reported to have died as a result of injuries sustained at the Kahrizak detention center.
 
       Adam J. Szubin, director of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, said  “Dolatabadi and Naqdi have no place in the international financial system.”
 
      In the third statement, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton chastised the Iranian regime for cracking down on protests over the previous two weeks, the first since the post-election unrest. “Over the past ten days, we have witnessed the bravery of thousands of Iranians who once again took to the streets to exercise their fundamental rights to peaceful assembly and expression,” she said in the statement.  “It has been made clear to the world that Iran denies its citizens the same fundamental rights it continues to applaud elsewhere in the Middle East.”
 
      Clinton said that the United States is troubled by reports of the executions of dozens of prisoners during the first two months of 2011. She called on Iran to free all political prisoners and persecuted minorities. 
 
 
Robin Wright, who has visited Iran regularly since 1973, is a joint fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
 

U.S. Gets Tougher on Iran

Robin Wright

       The Obama administration has become increasingly outspoken about Iran since the Egyptian and Tunisian uprisings. The main focus has notably shifted from Iran’s controversial nuclear program to issues of democracy and human rights abuses. 
 
       For the first time, the administration has taken the side of protesters, calling on Tehran to honor the people’s right to free speech and peaceful assembly and condemning the latest repression. The flood of comments from the Obama administration on Iran—just since peaceful demonstrations forced Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to resign on February 11—starkly contrasts with restrained language during six months of Iranian protests after the disputed 2009 presidential election.
 
       Both President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sternly admonished Tehran for its brutality on February 14, when the Islamic Republic cracked down on tens of thousands of protesters who turned out in several Iranian cities.
 
       The tougher U.S. language follows two rounds of unsuccessful diplomatic talks with Iran on its nuclear program. Negotiations in Geneva in December and Istanbul in January did not even produce an agreement on possible short-term measures to build confidence.
 
President Barack Obama press conference on February 15
       “I find it ironic that you’ve got the Iran regime pretending to celebrate what happened in Egypt when in fact they have acted in direct contrast to what happened in Egypt by gunning down and beating people who were trying to express themselves peacefully.”
 
      "Your aspirations for greater opportunity, for the ability to speak your mind, for free press - those are aspirations we support, as was true in Egypt.
 
       “We were clear then and we’re clear now that what has been true in Egypt should be true in Iran. People should be able to express their opinion and their grievances and seek a more responsive government. What’s been different is the Iranian government’s response, which is to beat people and shoot people and arrest people.
 
       “My hope and expectation is that we’re going to continue to see the people of Iran have the courage to be able to express their yearning for greater freedom and a more representative government."
 
       “America cannot ultimately dictate what happens inside of Iran any more than it could inside of Egypt, that ultimately these are sovereign countries that are going to have to make their own decisions."
 
       "What we can do is lend moral support to those who are seeking a better life for themselves…You can't maintain power through coercion. At some level, in any society, there has to be consent."
 
       About the entire Middle East, he added, "The world is changing…You have a young, vibrant generation within the Middle East that is looking for greater opportunity. ... You've got to get out ahead of change; you can't be behind the curve."
 
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on February 14
      "We are against violence and we would call to account the Iranian government that is once again using its security forces and resorting to violence to prevent the free expression of ideas from their own people.”
 
      “[Iranian officials are] more than happy to talk about look at what’s going on in Egypt, but when their opposition, when their young people try to express themselves, they come down with brutality.  They have a record of such abuse and excess.  Contrast that with the Egyptian military.  I would bet on the process that the Egyptian military has announced going forward as being a pathway to a different future, whereas I look with such dismay at what Iran continues to do and just feel – my heart goes out to the Iranian people.”
 
Clinton’s comments in reaction to comments by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that there will be a new Middle East with no place for the United States and Israel. 
      “I find it very ironic that Iran is trying to give lessons in democracy to anybody.  Talk about a revolution that was hijacked; Iran is Exhibit A.  What Iran is doing to its people, even as we speak, where there are protestors trying to have their voices heard in Iran who are being brutally suppressed by the Iranian security forces, I don’t think anyone in the Middle East – or frankly, anyone in the world – would look to Iran as an example for them.  That is not where anybody wants to end up, where you are basically in a military dictatorship with a kind of theocratic overlay which doesn't respond to the universal human rights of the Iranian people.  So I don’t think there’s much to be learned or really in any way followed coming out of Iran when it comes to democracy.”
 
National Security Adviser Tom Donilon on February 12
      “By announcing that they will not allow opposition protests, the Iranian government has declared illegal for Iranians what it claimed was noble for Egyptians. We call on the government of Iran to allow the Iranian people the universal right to peacefully assemble, demonstrate and communicate that’s being exercised in Cairo.”February 12
 
Vice President Joe Biden on February 11
      "I say to our Iranian friends: let your people march, let your people speak, release your people from jail, let them have a voice."
 
 White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs on February 11
      “I think we have all seen reports that -- over the past many days that there -- those in Iran have and want to march and demonstrate peacefully.  The government of Iran, again, has met those -- the concerns of its people with threatening to kill them.  Again, I think it speaks volumes as to what -- it speaks volumes to the grip that they have, or lack thereof, on the popular beliefs of their own people.”
 
      "The Iranian government should allow the Iranian people to exercise the very same right of peaceful assembly and the ability to communicate their desires."
 
National Security Council spokesperson Tommy Vietor on February 11
      "The recent arrests [of opponents] and effort to block international media outlets underscores the hypocrisy of the Iranian leadership."
 
      "For all of its empty talk about Egypt, the government of Iran should allow the Iranian people the same universal right to peacefully assemble, demonstrate and communicate in Tehran that the people are exercising in Cairo.”
 
 
Robin Wright, who has visited Iran regularly since 1973, is a joint fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
 
 

The Islamists Are Coming

The Islamists Are Coming, edited by Robin Wright, surveys the rise of Islamist groups in the wake of the Arab Spring. Often lumped together, the more than 50 Islamist parties with millions of followers now constitute a whole new spectrum—separate from either militants or secular parties. They will shape the new order in the world’s most volatile region more than any other political bloc. Yet they have diverse goals and different constituencies. Sometimes they are even rivals.

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