Report: Internal Tensions in Iran

June 18, 2014

            Iran’s internal politics and economic situation are fraught with tension, according to data compiled by international bodies and presented by Anthony Cordesman. For example, youth unemployment is already high at some 23 percent. But nearly a quarter of Iran’s population is 14-years-old or younger, which means that generation may have an even tougher time finding employment. Iran’s government has also received poor marks for effectiveness, corruption and accountability. The following are selected excerpts from the report published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Demographic Pressures

•Cumulative Growth: 80.8 Million in July 2014. (Was 16.6 million in 1950, 39.7 million when Khomeini took power. Projected to be 93.5 million in 2030, 100.5 million in 2050 (US Census Bureau)
 
• Youth: 0-14 years: 23.7% (male 9,834,866/female 9,350,017); 15-24 years: 18.7% (male 7,757,256/female 7,341,309)
 
• Employment: Over 715,000 males and 677,000 females reach job age each year in labor force of 27 million with key lacks in job skills.
 
•Youth Unemployment: Total: 23%. Country comparison to the world: 48th. Male: 20.2% female: 33.9% (Dated)
 
• Hyperurbanization: urban population: 69.1% of total population (2011); rate of urbanization: 1.25% annual rate of change (2010-15 est.)
 
• Ethnic Divisions: Persian 61%, Azeri 16%, Kurd 10%, Lur 6%, Baloch 2%, Arab 2%, Turkmen and Turkic tribes 2%, other 1%
 
• Dependency Ratio: Total dependency ratio: 41 % youth dependency ratio: 33.6 % elderly dependency ratio: 7.5 %
Source: CIA World Factbook, “Iran,” , June 2, 2014
 
 

 

Uncertain Economic Pressures
• GDP of $987.7 billion in 2013 versus $165.7 for Kuwait, $198.7 for Qatar, $927.8 for Saudi Arabia, $269.8 for UAE.
 
• Inflation: 42.3% in 2013.
 
• Budget: $66.4 billion in spending, $47.8 billion in Revenues. -4.5% GDP
 
• Exports: $61.22 billion (2013 est.) vs. $67.04 billion (2012 est.)
 
• Imports: $64.42 billion (2013 est.) vs. $70.03 billion (2012 est.)
 
• Current Account Balance: -$8.7 billion in 2013
 
• Industrial Production Growth Rate: -5.2% (2013 est.) Country comparison to
the world: 191st
 
• World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index: 152nd in the world
 
• Total Unemployment Rate: 16%, 23rd in the world (Dated)
 
• Population Below Poverty Line: 18.7% (Dated)
 
• Household Income of Consumption by Percentage Share: Lowest 10% =2.6%. Highest 10% = 29.6% GINI = 44.6 (Dated)
 
• Dependency Ratio: Total dependency ratio: 41 % youth dependency ratio:
33.6 % elderly dependency ratio: 7.5 %
Source: CIA World Factbook, “Iran,” , June 2, 2014
 
Click here for the full report.