Facts and Figures on Sunni-Shiite Balance

            The rivalry between Shiite Iran and Sunni Arab states reflects the deepest schism in the Islamic world. The split dates back to the seventh century, when the sects disagreed over the issue of leadership after the Prophet Mohammed’s death. Shiites believed that the Prophet should have been succeeded by relatives or descendants most familiar with his thinking and practices. The other Muslims who evolved into the Sunnis thought the early Muslim community had the right to select leaders with no blood ties to Mohammed.
            Today, more than 85 percent of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims are Sunni, according to the Pew Research Center. Shiites are a minority virtually everywhere except for Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iran and Iraq. Yemen and Lebanon are estimated to be 35 and 27 percent Shiite, respectively. 

 
Flashpoints
            The major flashpoints between Shiites and Sunnis in the Middle East today are:
            Bahrain: Shiites have long been the majority in the small island-nation but have felt neglected by the minority Sunni government. In February 2011, thousands marched in Manama to call for government reform. The protest movement has been predominantly Shiite.
            Iraq: Sunni militants affiliated with al Qaeda have rebelled against the Shiite-dominated central government. They took over Falluja, a city some 43 miles west of Baghdad, in January 2014.
            Lebanon: The Syrian civil war has exacerbated long-standing sectarian tensions. Violent street clashes between Sunnis and Shiites have broken out in Lebanese cities. In Sidon, followers of a hardline Sunni cleric have traded artillery and small arms fire with supporters of Hezbollah, a Shiite militia and political party. Since 2011, Alawites and Sunnis have had sporadic gunfights in Tripoli. Alawites are an offshoot of Shiism.
            Saudi Arabia: Between 10 and 15 percent of Saudi Arabia is thought to be Shiite. The Sunni monarchy’s oil-rich Eastern Province is home to a large Shiite minority that has long felt neglected by Riyadh. Since 2011, demonstrators have taken to the province’s streets to protest corruption, high unemployment and discrimination against Shiites.
            Syria: Sunni militants have flocked to Syria to fight Bashar al Assad’s regime, which is dominated by Alawites. Hezbollah has sent forces from Lebanon to defend the regime. And Shiite Iran has provided military and political support to Damascus.
            Yemen: Shiite rebels in northern Yemen called Houthis have been intermittently fighting against the Sunni-majority government since 2004. U.N. envoy to Yemen Jamal Benomar announced a ceasefire between Sunni Salafists and the Houthis in November 2013. But the violence has not subsided.
 
      Tensions are so deep that significant numbers of Sunnis – in some countries exceeding 50 percent – do not recognize Shiites as Muslims 14 centuries after the schism, according to a 2012 Pew study. The two sects agree on Islam’s most important articles of faith, belief in one God and the prophethood of Mohammed. But many Sunnis reject Shiite traditions, such as visiting saints’ shrines and appealing to the deceased for aid. Only in Lebanon and Iraq, where sizeable populations from both sects coexist in the same urban areas, do large majorities accept Shiites as Muslims.
      The two sects celebrate the holiday of Ashura differently and for separate reasons. Sunnis believe the day commemorates the day God saved the Israelites from Pharaoh. They fast, according to a tradition that claims Moses fasted on that day. For Shiites, however, Ashura commemorates the martyrdom of Imam Hossein, the Prophet Mohammed’s grandson who fell in battle against the Sunni Ummayad Dynasty in 680. Ritual chest beating and self-flagellation are common practices in the Middle East on the holiday. But some Shiite and Sunni leaders do not approve of these customs.
            Iran has the world’s largest Shiite population. The Islamic Republic is also the only country ever ruled by Shiite clerics. Both factors made it the de facto leader of the Shiiite world politically, even though the historic center of Shiite scholarship is in Najaf, Iraq. A 2013 Zogby poll found that 76 percent of Iranians surveyed believe their government’s foreign policy is designed primarily to protect vulnerable Shiite communities elsewhere in the region.
            The six neighboring Gulf sheikhdoms, all ruled by Sunnis, are home to some 3 million Shiites. Many have cultural or religious ties to Iran. Both Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have long claimed that Iran was trying to foment unrest among their Shiite minorities. “Clerical authorities in Iran still tend to act as if they lead the Islamic World--issuing ultimatums, intimidating their neighbors, and inciting dissidence and revolution,” Prince Turki al Faisal, the former Saudi intelligence chief, said in October 2013. But Iran also claims that the sheikhdoms discriminate against Shiites.
            Numerically, Iran’s 79 million population is almost twice as large as the 45 million people who populate the six Gulf sheikhdoms, especially since the Gulf numbers include foreign residents. The Sunni monarchies are concerned that Iran could more actively support their brethren inside the Gulf sheikhdoms.
 
Photo credits: Sunni-Shi'a map by DinajGao (Own work) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons, Pew Research Center